marketcycles

The crypto market moves in cycles, up and down. If you don’t know which phase you’re in, you’ll buy high and sell low. That’s what most people do.
A bull market is a long period of rising prices. Bitcoin makes higher highs and higher lows. Money flows into the market daily. News is positive. People talk about profits. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin rose from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands. Many altcoins grew 10x or 50x. Drops were short and quickly bought. Most people enter too late, buying after big gains and thinking the bull market will never end. They ignore risk. To avoid this, enter gradually, sell part of your holdings on gains, lock in profits, and don’t put everything in one coin.

A bear market is a long period of falling prices. Bitcoin makes lower highs and lower lows. Money exits the market. News turns negative. Fear dominates. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin lost over 75% of its value. Many altcoins fell over 90%. Trading volumes dropped. Public interest disappeared. Some people sell in panic. Others buy every dip thinking it’s the last. Many stay stuck for years. The smart approach is to keep most funds in cash, buy rarely and strategically, focus on known projects, and avoid forcing trades.

The crypto market moves in cycles, not randomly. A typical cycle has four phases:
Accumulation: Smart investors quietly buy while prices are low. Most people ignore the market during this phase. This is the best time to enter without competition.Bull phase: Prices rise steadily, news is positive, and everyone talks about profits. Early buyers see the biggest gains.Distribution: Near the peak, early investors start taking profits. Prices may fluctuate sharply. Beginners often misread this as continued bull momentum.Bear phase: Prices fall, fear dominates, and many sell in panic. It clears weak hands from the market, preparing the ground for the next accumulation.

A bull market doesn’t start when everyone talks about crypto. It starts when the market is quiet. Prices stabilize. Bitcoin stops making new lows. Volume rises slowly. A bear market doesn’t end after a small rise. It ends when the trend clearly changes. Highs and lows start moving higher.
The market doesn’t trick you. Emotions do. If you know which phase you’re in, you have a clear advantage.
#BullMarket📈 #bearmarket #MarketCycles #BEARISH📉 #bullish

The crypto market went through a stressful and cleansing week, dominated by risk-off behavior, heavy deleveraging, and persistent capital outflows.

$BTC started the week around $78,000 and ended close to $70,000, but the headline numbers do not fully reflect the intensity of the move. During the week, the market experienced a sharp long squeeze, driving $BTC down to a low near $59,700. This move triggered a broad wave of forced position closures and accelerated capital flight.

Deleveraging Phase Continues

The violent decline led to a significant reduction in leverage across the market. A large amount of speculative positioning was flushed out, confirming that the market is still in a deleveraging and reset phase rather than a recovery phase.

This process was accompanied by notable outflows, both on-chain and via investment products, reinforcing the idea that participants are prioritizing capital preservation over risk-taking.

Sentiment: Extreme Fear Dominates

Market sentiment deteriorated sharply:

The Fear & Greed Index fell into extreme fear at 9

During the worst phase of the sell-off, it briefly reached 5, one of the lowest readings in recent periods

Although a small rebound followed, sentiment remains decisively risk-off, showing that confidence has not yet returned and that market participants remain cautious.

ETF Flows and Institutional Behavior

Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to register substantial net outflows throughout the week. There was no clear sign of institutional stabilization or re-accumulation, suggesting that larger investors are still reducing exposure rather than positioning for upside.

As long as these outflows persist, they act as a structural headwind for the broader crypto market.

Market Interpretation

Taken together:

Deep deleveraging

Extreme fear

Ongoing ETF outflows

Weak risk appetite

indicate that the market is still in a defensive and corrective phase. The recent rebound appears more as a pause in selling pressure than a shift in market regime.

This type of environment is typically associated with uncertainty and rebuilding, rather than strong directional conviction.


#RiskAssetsMarketShock #WhenWillBTCRebound #WarshFedPolicyOutlook #fear&greed #MarketCycles

la pazienza è una virtù

Nei mercati, specialmente nelle criptovalute, la domanda "Sta arrivando un trend ribassista?" è spesso meno importante di come scegliamo di rispondere se accade.

I mercati finanziari si muovono in cicli.

L'euforia è seguita da una correzione.

L'espansione è seguita da un'accumulazione.

Un trend ribassista non è la fine del viaggio — è una fase. E spesso, è la fase che separa la speculazione a breve termine dalla convinzione a lungo termine.

Coloro che inseguono solo profitti rapidi tendono a uscire quando il momento svanisce. Coloro che hanno visione rimangono, si adattano e si preparano silenziosamente a ciò che verrà dopo.

Ricordo il tempo in cui il mondo stava appena iniziando
Chi poteva, si alzava e andava
Salivo in alto tra le montagne, portando con me
La mia speranza forte, come l'amore
Tutto andrà bene...
Okean Elzy - Tutto andrà bene
Mentre tutti aspettavano il momento "verso la luna" dopo l'inaugurazione e tutti gli slogan rumorosi, il mercato ci ha insegnato una lezione dura: la politica è rumore, la liquidità è re.

After a steep crypto bear market, prices often enter a multi-month consolidation or “reset” phase In plain terms, this is when Bitcoin (and most altcoins) trade sideways as the market digests prior losses.
During this time fear subsides and patient investors begin buying the dip, Other factors – like an improving economy or clearer crypto regulations (for example, new Bitcoin ETFs) – also help stabilize confidence. Historically, once the bottom is in, a new bull cycle has typically begun within a few months to about a year. Below we explore why these reset phases occur and how past cycles have played out.

What Drives the Post-Bear Consolidation
Exhausted Selling & Psychology: By the bear market’s end, most weak hands have sold or capitulated. Investor sentiment is extremely low (even “fear and despair” peaks), and any further big drop is capped by exhausted selling. As one analysis notes, during bottoms high trading volume and extreme fear signal that selling pressure is nearly spent. Once this happens, prices tend to trade in a tight range (low volatility) as the market “catches its breath”

Accumulation by Long-Term Buyers: With prices low and fear high, long-term holders start accumulating quietly. Crypto research shows that in an accumulation phase (also called consolidation), prices stabilize and volume is subdued, but savvy investors are buying on dips. For example, Arkham Intelligence explains that after a crash Bitcoin’s accumulation phase often lasts ~12–15 months as whales and dedicated investors load up at discounts. This steady demand at lows gradually soaks up sell pressure and lays the groundwork for the next rally!

Macroeconomic Stabilization: Crypto rarely moves in a vacuum. Often by the end of a crypto bear market, broader economic conditions begin to stabilize For instance, cooling inflation or the expectation of lower interest rates can make risky assets more attractive again. As OneKey’s analysis notes, factors like interest rates, inflation, and global growth strongly influence crypto cycles. When macroeconomic fears (e.g. recession or high inflation) ease, investors regain confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin. In short, a steadier economy gives crypto markets a healthier backdrop during the reset.

Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Entry: Finally, clearer rules and institutional products can spark recovery, For example media and analysts have noted that optimism around regulatory clarity (such as approved spot-Bitcoin ETFs) and renewed institutional involvement often emerges during consolidation. In early 2024, U.S. Bitcoin ETF approvals drove billions of dollars into crypto, helping turn months of sideways trading into a bullish trend. In general, once traders see less regulatory uncertainty, larger investors feel safer buying – which accelerates the shift out of the reset phase.

Chart: Bitcoin’s price (log scale) over time with shaded market-cycle phases (accumulation in blue/green, crash in red) Each crash is followed by a long consolidation period before the next bull run. This chart illustrates how each crash is followed by an extended consolidation. On average, crypto analysts observe roughly 3–4 year cycles from bottom to bottom, with the multi-month accumulation phase often lasting about 12–15 months before a new rally begins. During that phase (blue on the chart), prices trade sideways while sentiment slowly recovers and long-term investors pile in.

Historical Recovery Times by Cycle
Looking at recent Bitcoin cycles gives concrete context for timing:

2015–2017 cycle: After the late-2014 peak ($1,150), Bitcoin slumped into early 2015 (~$250). It then consolidated through 2015 and 2016. By mid-2016 the market had stabilized, and a strong rally built into the 2017 bull run. In other words, it took on the order of 6–12 months after the 2015 bottom for prices to regain upward momentum, eventually culminating in the late-2017 peak.

2018–2020 cycle: The 2017 bull top was followed by a sharp drop. Bitcoin bottomed around $3,200 in Dec 2018. From that trough, prices entered a roughly year-long accumulation. In fact, analysts have shown BTC rose about 310% over the next 6 months. By mid-2019 Bitcoin was already trading many times its prior low. The full bull market picked up steam into 2020 (aided by the Bitcoin halving and stimulus), leading to a new high by early 2021. In summary, the transition from the Dec 2018 bottom to a clear bull market took on the order of 6–12 months.

2022–2024 cycle: Following the 2021 peak (~$69k), Bitcoin fell dramatically. By November 2022 it hit ~$15k (a ~78% decline from the top). After that low, crypto entered a prolonged reset. With declining inflation and U.S. Fed rate hikes peaking, combined with approval of major BTC ETFs, investor sentiment began to recover. By mid-2023 (roughly 6–8 months after the trough), Bitcoin had roughly doubled off the Nov 2022 lows as a new bull phase took hold. By late 2024, Bitcoin was well above its mid-2022 levels (it reached ~$93k in Nov 2024), completing the cycle turn.

These examples show a pattern: major bear-market bottoms are often followed within about half a year to a year by the next bull market’s upward thrust. On average, full cycle peaks occur ~35 months after the previous low, but the shift from reset to rally usually happens much sooner once conditions align.

Key Takeaways
Consolidation is Normal: Crypto markets naturally go through phases. A bear crash is often followed by a long flat period as selling dries up and buyers step in.
Patience Pays: The reset phase can last months or even a year. Savvy investors often use this time to accumulate coins, anticipating the next uptrend.
Watch Fundamentals: Keep an eye on broad indicators – e.g. macroeconomic stability or regulatory news – as these typically signal when the reset is ending and a new bull is starting.
Historical Timeframes: Past cycles suggest ~6–12 months from the bear-market low into the early part of the next bull. For example, after the Dec 2018 bottom, Bitcoin recovered 310% in 6 months. Similarly, after the Nov 2022 bottom, BTC had doubled by mid-2023 on improving conditions.


Summary: In short, crypto markets “reset” after big drops because the worst of the selling is over and investors gradually rebuild confidence. This consolidation often lasts under a year, after which a new bull market tends to begin. Understanding these phases – and having historical context – can help investors recognize when a bear market has truly ended and a recovery is underway.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #MarketCycles #cryptoeducation