onchainanalysis

$XRP è ora sceso al di sotto del suo prezzo realizzato — un livello che molti trader occasionali ignorano, ma che i partecipanti esperti al mercato osservano con molta attenzione.
Prima di arrivare alla conclusione che “il fondo è stato raggiunto”, rallentiamo e comprendiamo cosa significa realmente — e come navigare correttamente in questo ambiente.
Il prezzo realizzato rappresenta il costo medio di tutti i coin in circolazione. Quando il prezzo scambia al di sotto di questo livello, significa che la maggior parte dei detentori si trova in perdite non realizzate. Questo cambia la psicologia.

Bitcoin’s price may look calm above the $70K region, but beneath the surface something more interesting is developing.
Whale wallets holding 100+ BTC have started increasing inflows again, with activity pushing back toward the 2,900 BTC zone. What makes this notable is the timing — price is compressing while large holders are accumulating.
Historically, this kind of divergence matters.
When whale demand rises during sideways or compressed price action, it often signals liquidity absorption. In simple terms, strong hands are buying supply without aggressively moving the market… yet.
The 30-day average of whale inflows has also started turning upward. In previous cycles, similar shifts have appeared near local bottoms or before expansion phases.
This doesn’t guarantee immediate upside.
But it does suggest positioning is happening early — not after breakout confirmation.
Another important detail: retail sentiment remains relatively neutral.
That creates an imbalance environment:
• Supply slowly tightening
• Large holders accumulating
• Retail not fully engaged
These conditions can precede volatility expansion.
If whale inflows remain consistently above the 1,000 BTC baseline, the probability of momentum acceleration increases. Once liquidity gets absorbed, price tends to move quickly.
Smart money rarely chases breakouts.
It positions before them.
The key question now isn’t whether whales are active —
it’s whether this accumulation sustains.
Because when large holders move first, the market usually follows.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BinanceSquareFamily #OnChainAnalysis

Recent Bitcoin price action is often framed as a single-variable story: ETF flows.
Money comes in, price goes up. Money flows out, price goes down.
This narrative is not wrong — but it is incomplete.
Bitcoin is not merely a tradable ticker. It is a live network with internal economic dynamics, and some of the most valuable clues about where we are in the cycle are embedded in on-chain data, not headlines.
While ETF investors react quickly to short-term sentiment, miners, long-term holders, and the majority of wallets operate on very different timelines. They accumulate, endure pressure, distribute gradually, and recover — often well before narratives catch up.
To assess where the market truly stands, it helps to examine several on-chain “cycle gauges” that have historically provided reliable signals: miner reserves, NUPL, and the percentage of UTXOs in profit.
⛏️ Miner Reserves Are Reaching Structural Lows
Miners sit at the intersection of Bitcoin’s digital economy and the fiat world.
They face real-world costs: electricity, infrastructure, debt, and operational financing. When margins tighten, miners cannot rely on conviction alone — they must sell, restructure, hedge, or shut down.
On-chain data shows that miner reserves have fallen to levels not seen since Bitcoin’s early years. Currently, miners collectively hold approximately 1.801 million BTC.
Over the past 60 days, miner reserves have declined by roughly 6,300 BTC, averaging more than 100 BTC per day. This steady outflow resembles a controlled “leak,” typical of periods when operational pressure forces treasury assets to be converted into working capital.
The longer-term trend is even more telling. Despite Bitcoin’s price appreciation over multiple cycles, miner-held supply has structurally declined over the years, indicating a gradual erosion of miner balance sheets.
Measured in USD terms, the pressure becomes clearer. The total value of miner reserves is now around $133 billion, down more than 20% in just two months — driven by both falling prices and ongoing coin distribution.
As reserves thin while prices remain volatile, miners lose their buffer against downside moves, increasing the probability that additional supply enters the market if conditions deteriorate.
📊 ETF Flows vs. On-Chain Reality
ETF flows can dominate short-term price action.
Over the past ten trading sessions, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $1.7 billion in net outflows, or about $170 million per day.
This magnitude is large enough to influence marginal demand and fast enough to shift sentiment before most market participants can adjust.
The problem with focusing exclusively on ETF flows is that they reveal surface-level pressure, not the structural stress building beneath.
📉 NUPL: Is the Market in Profit or in Pain?
To determine whether Bitcoin is experiencing a routine correction or approaching deeper capitulation, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) offers a high-level view of market psychology.
Currently, NUPL remains positive at approximately 0.215, placing Bitcoin in the so-called “green zone.” However, the metric has declined sharply — by roughly 0.17 over recent months — reflecting shrinking unrealized profits and tightening sentiment.
Historically important thresholds lie below:
NUPL < 0: the market moves into aggregate unrealized loss
NUPL ≈ -0.2: zones associated with true cycle capitulation
The last time NUPL turned negative was early 2023, while readings below -0.2 occurred during late 2022, near confirmed bear market lows.
At present, Bitcoin is not yet there. That does not rule out a nearby bottom, but it does mean classical capitulation has not been confirmed.
📦 How Many UTXOs Are Still in Profit?
The UTXO in profit metric reveals how much of the network is holding coins above cost basis — and how this has evolved across cycles.
At historical cycle lows:
2011: ~8% of UTXOs in profit
2015: ~15%
2018: ~49% (COVID 2020 being an outlier)
In 2023, the cycle low formed around 60%.
In current data, 2026 has already seen a local low near 58%, with the most recent reading around 71%.
This rising “floor” tells a story of a maturing market:
More long-term holders
Lower average cost bases
Participants who have survived multiple cycles
As a result, less pain is required to trigger meaningful demand, potentially allowing bottoms to form faster than in earlier eras.
This raises a key question:
If UTXO profitability has already reached levels historically associated with cycle lows, could Bitcoin be closer to a bottom than the traditional four-year model suggests?
🧪 A Public Stress Test for the Network
During deep drawdowns, miners do not trade narratives. Machines run, power bills arrive, loans mature.
When price falls while the network remains operational, miners are often the first group forced to make hard decisions.
The fact that miner reserves are approaching long-term lows carries psychological weight. It suggests prolonged distribution has already occurred and that mining now operates like a conventional industry with real balance-sheet constraints.
Broader mining data reinforces this pressure. Large difficulty adjustments and hash rate declines tend to appear when mining economics tighten or operational disruptions occur. Recently, Bitcoin experienced one of the largest difficulty adjustments in its history, alongside a noticeable drop in hash rate — consistent with stress across the sector.
⚖️ Scale of Flows: Miners vs. ETFs
Over 60 days, miners distributed roughly 6,300 BTC, worth hundreds of millions of dollars at spot prices.
While significant, this supply is small relative to ETF flows, which can move billions of dollars within weeks.
The key is interaction:
ETF outflows + falling prices
Compressed miner margins
Declining reserves
Additional supply under weak demand
This feedback loop does not guarantee collapse — but it raises risk if sustained.
🔄 When NUPL and UTXO Signals Diverge
Current signals are not perfectly aligned:
NUPL remains positive, suggesting no broad-based unrealized loss yet
UTXO in profit has reached levels seen near prior cycle bottoms, implying much of the damage may already be priced in
Market bottoms are not single candles; they are social processes. UTXO profitability acts as a proxy for exhaustion, and rising cycle floors reflect accumulated experience across participants.
A bottom may be near — but the word may matters. NUPL remains the dividing line between a sharp capitulation and a prolonged grind.
🔮 Three Scenarios Ahead
Scenario 1: Prolonged Range-Bound Fatigue
ETF outflows slow, miner reserve declines stabilize, NUPL holds between 0.15–0.30. Price neither crashes nor rallies, gradually eroding patience.
Scenario 2: Classical Capitulation
ETF selling accelerates, price declines, NUPL turns negative toward -0.2, miners distribute more aggressively under economic pressure. This aligns with historical deep bear confirmations.
Scenario 3: Early Bottom Formation
UTXO signals dominate: ETF flows stabilize or turn positive, NUPL stays positive and trends upward, miner reserves stop bleeding. The market absorbs shock before full sentiment reset.
🧩 ETFs Are Not Opposed to On-Chain Data — They’re Part of the Same System
ETFs exist within a broader macro context. Institutional participation ties Bitcoin more closely to interest rates, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite.
ETF flows shape short-term price rhythm.
On-chain data reveals deeper cyclical pressure — where ordinary corrections can turn structural.
🧠 Conclusion
On-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be closer to exhaustion than ETF flows alone imply — but full capitulation has not yet been confirmed.
Miner reserves are thin, USD-denominated balances have compressed sharply, NUPL is tightening while still positive, and UTXO profitability has already reached zones historically associated with cycle lows.
Markets should be viewed through the lens of three groups that cannot pause:
Miners who must operate
Holders balancing conviction and fear
Institutions reacting to policy and capital flows
The next decisive moment will come when on-chain pressure either breaks — or is absorbed — not from a single ETF headline.
📌 This article is for informational purposes only and represents a personal research perspective. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research.
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