uscpi

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI are two of the most important economic indicators used to measure inflation in the United States. These indicators help policymakers, investors, businesses, and consumers understand changes in the cost of living and the overall health of the economy.

What is US CPI?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. This basket includes essential categories such as:
Food and beveragesHousing and rentTransportationMedical careEducation and communicationRecreation
CPI reflects how much consumers need to spend today compared to a previous period to maintain the same standard of living. When CPI rises, it indicates inflation, meaning prices are increasing. When it falls, it suggests deflation.

What is Core CPI?
Core CPI is a modified version of CPI that excludes food and energy prices. These two components are removed because they are highly volatile and can fluctuate due to temporary factors such as weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, or supply disruptions.

By excluding these volatile items, Core CPI provides a clearer picture of underlying or long-term inflation trends. Economists and the Federal Reserve often rely more on Core CPI when making monetary policy decisions.
Federal Reserve Policy
The US Federal Reserve closely monitors CPI and Core CPI to decide interest rates. Rising inflation may lead to higher interest rates, while falling inflation can encourage rate cuts.

Financial Markets
Stock, bond, forex, and cryptocurrency markets react strongly to CPI releases. Higher-than-expected inflation often strengthens the US dollar and impacts equity valuations.

Consumer Impact
CPI affects wage negotiations, pensions, tax brackets, and cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits.

Business Decisions
Companies use CPI trends to adjust pricing strategies, manage costs, and plan future investments.

CPI Data Release and Market Reaction
US CPI and Core CPI data are released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Markets compare the actual data with forecasts.

Higher than expected CPI/Core CPI → Markets expect tighter monetary policy

Lower than expected CPI/Core CPI → Markets expect easier financial conditions

Even small deviations from expectations can cause significant market volatility.

Conclusion
US CPI and Core CPI are crucial indicators that reflect inflation and economic stability. While CPI shows the real cost of living faced by consumers, Core CPI helps identify long-term inflation trends by removing temporary price shocks. Together, these indicators guide monetary policy, influence financial markets, and shape economic planning at both individual and national levels.

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C'è un certo tipo di tensione che si costruisce prima di un rilascio dell'IPC, e se hai osservato i mercati a lungo, la riconosci immediatamente. I grafici dei prezzi diventano silenziosi. I commenti diventano cauti. Tutti aspettano, fingendo di essere rilassati mentre sanno che un singolo numero può annullare settimane di posizionamento. Il prossimo rapporto sull'indice dei prezzi al consumo statunitense per novembre 2025, previsto per giovedì mattina, porta con sé quella familiarità di tensione, ma questa volta sembra più acuta del solito.
Parte di esso è il tempismo. Il rapporto arriva il 18 dicembre alle 8:30 ora orientale, quando i mercati globali sono completamente svegli ma non completamente stabili. La liquidità è presente, ma è abbastanza sottile da far sì che le reazioni superino le aspettative. Un'altra parte è il contesto. Questa stampa dell'IPC sta arrivando tardi, seguendo precedenti interruzioni legate a una chiusura del governo, e arriva senza un dato ufficiale sull'inflazione di ottobre per ancorare le aspettative. I mercati non amano capitoli mancanti nella storia, e in questo momento, l'inflazione ha un capitolo mancante.