cryptomarket

🚨
Siamo alle porte di un evento straordinario che il mercato non ha mai vissuto a questa scala; dove domani scadranno contratti di opzioni per Bitcoin del valore di circa 23 miliardi di dollari.

Questa enorme liquidità miliardaria ci pone di fronte a scenari aperti in condizioni di mercato complesse:

🔍 Analisi del panorama attuale:

Oscillazioni forti previste: con la chiusura di questi contratti, di solito assistiamo a fluttuazioni di prezzo 'violente' mirate a liquidare le posizioni scoperte.

Il 26 dicembre, il mercato delle criptovalute assisterà alla più grande scadenza di opzioni Bitcoin nella storia per valore nominale. Questo evento sta attirando l'attenzione significativa di trader e istituzioni, poiché potrebbe influenzare il comportamento dei prezzi a breve termine prima di potenzialmente preparare il terreno per movimenti più ampi all'inizio di gennaio.
Secondo i dati di mercato, le opzioni Bitcoin del valore di circa $23.7 miliardi sono pronte a scadere. Quando combinato con Ethereum e altri asset crittografici, il valore nominale totale dei contratti in scadenza raggiunge quasi $28 miliardi. Questo lo rende uno degli eventi derivati più importanti che il mercato abbia mai visto.

Autore della notizia: Crypto Emergency
Gli Stati Uniti hanno espresso interesse per l'uso dell'energia della centrale nucleare di Zaporizhzhia per l'estrazione di criptovalute. Lo ha comunicato il presidente della Russia Vladimir Putin in un incontro riservato con rappresentanti del mondo degli affari, riporta «Kommersant» citando i partecipanti all'evento, incluso il capo della RSPP Alexander Shokhin.

Secondo l'analista crypto Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum potrebbe avere difficoltà a raggiungere un nuovo massimo storico (ATH) nel 2026, in particolare se Bitcoin conferma una struttura di mercato ribassista più ampia.
Parlando nel podcast Bankless all'inizio di questa settimana, Cowen ha enfatizzato che il potenziale di crescita di Ethereum rimane fortemente dipendente dalla tendenza macro di Bitcoin.
“Se Bitcoin sta davvero entrando in un mercato orso, come suggeriscono le condizioni attuali, sarà molto difficile per Ethereum vivere una crescita forte e sostenuta,” ha dichiarato Cowen.

Autore della notizia: Crypto Emergency
La storia della dinamica del bitcoin nel Natale cattolico negli ultimi dieci anni dimostra non solo modelli di mercato ricorrenti, ma anche una graduale maturazione dell'industria - dal fervore al dettaglio del 2017 al dominio istituzionale nel 2024.

The cryptocurrency market has remained deeply in the red for nearly two consecutive months, with investor sentiment deteriorating to levels rarely seen outside of major market breakdowns. The Fear & Greed Index has spent more than 30% of 2025 in the “fear” or “extreme fear” zones, while alternative sentiment indicators have hovered between 10 and 25 out of 100 since mid-November.
Bitcoin is now on track to record its worst fourth quarter since 2018, while many large-cap altcoins have collapsed by as much as 90% from their cycle highs. In stark contrast, gold, silver, and major equity indices have all reached new all-time highs during the same period.
The atmosphere across crypto markets has become increasingly toxic. Investors have finally received nearly every macro, policy, and structural condition they have advocated for since 2021 — yet the reward has been a market that weakens after every relief rally and continues to underperform nearly all competing asset classes.
This is not how a cycle typically ends.
This is how confidence erodes and investment narratives break down.
To understand why sentiment has deteriorated so sharply, five overlapping forces must be examined: the widening gap between expectations and performance, collapsing liquidity, brutal leverage liquidations, a confused macro backdrop, and narrative exhaustion, where even positive milestones turn into “sell-the-news” events.
The Toxic Gap Between Expectations and Reality
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,000 in October, seemingly backed by a perfect macro and structural backdrop. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded record inflows, U.S. government shutdown risks revived the “safe haven” narrative, and a third rate cut was increasingly priced in.
Yet instead of the explosive Q4 rally many anticipated, Bitcoin fell nearly 30%, closing the year marginally lower and marking its weakest Q4 performance since 2018.
Altcoins fared far worse. Many lost up to 90% of their peak valuations, largely due to thin liquidity and the reality that a significant portion of tokens launched in 2024–2025 lacked real product-market fit beyond speculative demand.
The contrast with traditional assets amplified investor frustration. Gold rose roughly 70%, silver surged over 140%, and the S&P 500 reached new highs, while crypto portfolios continued to bleed despite crypto being positioned as an inflation hedge.
This divergence created a uniquely damaging psychological effect: the feeling that the investment thesis was correct, but the asset class itself failed — or worse, that crypto as a whole might be structurally broken. When performance dramatically underdelivers despite “all the right conditions,” sentiment doesn’t merely worsen — it collapses.
Liquidity Drain and Participant Retreat
On-chain data shows a steady decline in Bitcoin transaction volume and active addresses since November, with double-digit percentage drops across several metrics. A mid-December report from VanEck highlighted weak transaction fees, stagnant new address growth, and slowing hash rate expansion.
Derivatives volume and futures open interest have also trended lower since late August. Multiple trading desks have described weak spot demand around the $87,000–$90,000 range, indicating that buyers are increasingly unwilling to step in.
Price declines accompanied by shrinking volume are a clear signal that buyers are withdrawing. Bitcoin has repeatedly tested support levels without reclaiming higher ranges, reinforcing the perception that conviction is fading.
Thin liquidity further amplifies downside volatility. With shallow order books, even modest sell orders can trigger sharp drops, cascading stop-losses, and forced liquidations — directly feeding into rising fear metrics.
The decline in active addresses suggests retail participation is fading. Institutional capital may still be present, but it does not bring the speculative energy that historically fueled crypto’s strongest rallies.
When retail exits, markets become a tug-of-war between leveraged traders and long-term holders — with neither side willing to aggressively push prices higher. The result is prolonged, low-volume drawdowns, which have defined much of the recent quarter.
Leverage Liquidations and Long-Term Holder Distribution
The November sell-off combined profit-taking above $100,000, ETF outflows, and nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions wiped out during October. Long-dormant “OG” wallets suddenly became active, selling large amounts of Bitcoin near the highs and reinforcing the belief that “smart money” had exited the cycle peak.
Mechanically, the setup was textbook. Bitcoin pushed above $120,000, open interest hit record levels, funding rates spiked, and the market became overheated. Once price failed to extend higher and reversed, liquidations cascaded rapidly. Long positions were forced out, stop-losses triggered, and market structure unraveled within days.
Sales from long-term holders inflicted additional psychological damage. When wallets inactive for years begin distributing, markets instinctively interpret it as insider capitulation. Whether accurate or not, perception matters more than reality in sentiment-driven environments.
As the belief that “smart money sold the top” spreads, remaining participants rush to avoid being the last to exit. This self-reinforcing loop pushes prices lower, deepens fear, and accelerates further selling.
Macro Confusion and Policy Disorder
Recent U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve messaging have increased expectations for rate cuts in 2026, but not with enough clarity to signal a prolonged low-rate environment. As a result, crypto trades as a high-beta risk asset rather than a hedge.
When the U.S. dollar weakens, Bitcoin only briefly rebounds. When risk appetite fades, Bitcoin falls harder than equities. This pattern undermines the “digital gold” narrative, at least in the short term.
Regulatory clarity has also failed to deliver confidence. Europe’s MiCA framework forces exchanges and stablecoin issuers to comply or exit. In the U.S., the GENIUS Act may define stablecoin rules, but not until 2027, while the CLARITY Act remains stalled.
Meanwhile, private litigation risk has increased as SEC enforcement weakens, leaving legal uncertainty unresolved. None of these developments create a sense of a “clear runway” for growth.
Crypto’s 2025 thesis hinged on clarity: spot ETFs attracting institutional capital, a friendlier political environment, and supportive macro conditions. All three materialized — yet prices failed to respond.
The disconnect between narrative and outcome has pushed sentiment from optimism to confusion, and ultimately into fear.
Winning Every Structural Battle — and Still Losing the Market
In 2025, crypto gained a pro-crypto U.S. president, spot ETFs, landmark IPOs such as Circle, and aggressive tokenization narratives from BlackRock. Yet prices declined after nearly every milestone.
ETF inflows peaked — price stagnated.
Political wins arrived — price corrected.
Major IPOs launched — momentum faded.
Each positive catalyst turned into a sell-the-news event. Altcoins continued to underperform, while gold and silver absorbed the spotlight as “hard asset” winners.
When an industry achieves nearly all of its long-sought structural victories yet continues to underperform, retail sentiment inevitably shifts from excitement to disillusionment.
Crypto won policy, access, and legitimacy — but none translated into sustainable upside. Instead, victories became exit liquidity: insiders sold into optimism, retail bought expectations, and prices ended lower.
Narrative fatigue now dominates. Investors no longer believe the next catalyst will be different.
What Extreme Fear Really Signals
Extreme fear reflects a market that feels betrayed by its own thesis. Investors believed in the halving cycle, ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and macro tailwinds. All occurred — and prices still fell.
Historically, extreme fear can signal contrarian opportunities, but only when underlying conditions begin to improve.
At present, the drivers of fear — weak liquidity, heavy leverage, macro uncertainty, and narrative exhaustion — remain unresolved. Together, they form a new equilibrium: slow declines, shrinking volume, and widespread reluctance to call a bottom.
The central question for 2026 is whether crypto can find a catalyst powerful enough to reverse this dynamic — or whether this cycle ends not with a euphoric blow-off, but with a prolonged, grinding capitulation that erodes belief in the entire asset class.
👉 Follow for more in-depth crypto market analysis, on-chain insights, and macro-driven perspectives.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket