In my view,the current altcoin market cannot yet be called a complete cycle.The past two years have only been the startup phase.A true cycle must have a prolonged accumulation phase followed by a clear push phase similar to how gold is moving now.
The recent sharp declines,in my opinion,are more about psychological shaking rather than the end of a cycle.The main goal is to scare investors,make them sell off,thus creating conditions for large capital to silently accumulate.
Currently,the sharks are still suffering losses of billions of USD,so we the retail investors are actually just a very small part of this game.
The difficult situation of Altcoin
This year,the market capitalization is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin.The scenario is very clear:
Bitcoin rises → Altcoin stands still
Bitcoin falls → Altcoin falls sharply
This is causing many brothers and sisters to be exhausted,as in reality,over 90% of crypto investors hold altcoins,not Bitcoin.
Technical view & personal strategy
According to technical analysis and Market Profile,I believe Bitcoin still has the potential for another shakeout, around the 58,000 57,000 USD range.This is the value area where large capital flows are concentrated on the monthly timeframe.
The strategy I refer to:
Spot portfolio: 30% BTC, 70% ETH BNB SOL LINK
Hold Spot,do not use leverage
Allocate 5–10% of capital for a Long position on BTC around 58,000 – 56,000 USD
Stop loss when BTC breaks below 53,000 USD
According to Market Profile,there has been capital entering,but based on personal experience,the market still needs a re testing phase to confirm the bottom.
Macro view & global capital flow
In 2025,the Fed only has two slight interest rate cuts (0.25%).The current large capital is not flowing strongly into crypto but is concentrated in precious metals like gold and silver.
Unlike previous cycles,when the Fed cut interest rates strongly,capital would flow out of gold and into crypto.Currently,gold is attracting most of the global liquidity.Only when gold cools down can capital potentially return to cryptocurrencies.
Moreover,the tightening legal regulations on Bitcoin in some countries are making large capital more cautious.
Personal conclusion
The crypto market is a harsh purging game, it's not just about participating to make profits.The upcycle requires a lot of preparation time.
For a long term investor like me,this phase is an opportunity to accumulate more assets at good price levels,not to panic.Opportunities often arise when most of the market only sees risks.
This year,my crypto portfolio is slightly down, but trading in gold and indices is profitable. However,I believe time will answer everything.Profits in this market have never been a rosy path it is a real battlefield.
