The economy is sending signals the Fed might be behind the curve. Jobs aren’t collapsing, but layoffs are ticking up, credit stress is rising, and bankruptcies are increasing.
Inflation isn’t hot — real-time trackers show it near 0.68%. This isn’t a sign of overheating — prices are actually cooling. Keeping interest rates too high
Credit pressure is hitting small businesses and over-leveraged companies first. By the time the Fed reacts, the damage could already be done.
The real question now isn’t inflation — it’s growth. Markets are starting to price in that restrictive policy might be overtight for what the economy is actually doing.