📊 BTC Traders Wait for $50K Bottom: Five Things to Know This Week
Bitcoin begins its second week of February, recovering from recent lows as traders remain cautious about BTC's short-term outlook.
🔍 KEY MARKET INSIGHTS:
📉 Market Bottom Not Confirmed
Analysts agree that Bitcoin price action hasn't established a reliable long-term bottom yet. BTC continues trading above $70,000, but bearish sentiment persists in the short term.
💰 BTC Price Expected to Retest $60,000
Data from TradingView shows Bitcoin staying around 20% higher versus its 15-month lows from last week. Trader CrypNuevo warns the current relief may be a manipulative move to liquidate late short positions between $72k-$77k.
📊 CPI Week Brings Fed Policy Uncertainty
Markets are losing faith in Federal Reserve rate cuts in March. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Friday is the week's main event, following various US employment data.
President Trump's pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is seen as opposed to easing financial conditions. CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently shows 82% odds of rates staying at current levels at the March 18 meeting.
💵 US Dollar at a Ten-Year Crossroads
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is failing to reclaim levels above 98 after a relief rally from multiyear lows near 95.5 in late January.
Analyst Aksel Kibar notes this is a critical level for the long-term trend, stating: "DXY can offer a great trade setup soon. Long or short, irrespective of direction."
A strong dollar typically creates pressure for Bitcoin, though the correlation has fluctuated in recent years. Analyst Henrik Zeberg suggests the current relationship mirrors early 2021 - about ten months before BTC's last bull market peak.
🇯🇵 Japan's Election Impact on Crypto
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide reelection victory signals Japan's shift toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for currency depreciation. Japanese stocks surged to record highs, potentially reshaping global capital flows.
XWIN Research warns of "slowing inflows" into US equity ETFs due to a weaker yen making Japanese bonds more attractive. This could create short-term downside risk for Bitcoin, as BTC tends to correlate with US equities during risk-off phases.
⛏️ Bitcoin Miners See "Exceptional" Exchange Inflows
Miner inflows to exchanges reached their highest levels since 2024 in recent days, with February 5 alone seeing total deposits of 24,000 BTC.
CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain describes this as "exceptional," noting the market is undergoing a "redistribution phase." The rise in miner activity comes amid clear volatility and reduced risk appetite among trader segments, potentially adding short-term selling pressure.
However, these inflows don't necessarily indicate a prolonged downtrend but may represent a natural redistribution phase within the market cycle.
⚠️ MARKET OUTLOOK:
Traders anticipate volatility to slowly decrease as a range forms, allowing for reassessment and new opportunities. Some analysts project potential targets as high as $146,000 if historical patterns from the 2021 DXY-BTC relationship repeat.
