The US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls, NFP) measures the net change in the number of employed people across the economy, including the private and public sectors. This means it also includes government employees, even those who were previously laid off during a government shutdown and later rehired.

However, this report can be misleading or inflated from an analytical perspective. The NFP counts all net changes in employment, not only genuinely new jobs created by economic growth. For example, if government workers were fired during a shutdown and then hired back, they are counted again as “new jobs” in the monthly statistics.

In other words, the report does not distinguish between:

real new job creation driven by economic expansion,

temporary layoffs and rehires,

job rotations, seasonal hiring, or contract work.

Because of this methodology, the headline number can appear stronger than the underlying economic reality. The labor market report often reflects statistical adjustments and employment normalization, rather than pure organic job growth.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis reflects personal opinions and interpretations of publicly available data and may not be accurate or complete. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.