Investment bank Standard Chartered has turned cautious on the near-term outlook for cryptocurrencies, warning that bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 and ether could drop to around $1,400 before a meaningful recovery begins. The revised forecast reflects ongoing pressure from ETF outflows, weak macro conditions, and broader risk-off sentiment across global markets.

Lower Short-Term Targets, But Long-Term Optimism Intact

The bank has reduced its end-2026 price targets, now expecting bitcoin to reach $100,000 instead of $150,000 and ether to climb to $4,000 rather than the previously projected $7,500. Despite this downgrade, Standard Chartered maintained its long-term bullish stance, keeping its ambitious 2030 projections of $500,000 for BTC and $40,000 for ETH unchanged.

ETF Outflows and Macro Headwinds Driving Downside Risk

According to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, recent crypto weakness could persist as investors who entered through ETFs at higher prices may choose to reduce exposure rather than buy the dip. Holdings of bitcoin ETFs have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their peak in October 2025, with the average entry price around $90,000, leaving many investors sitting on sizable unrealized losses.

These losses, combined with a fragile macro environment, are increasing the likelihood of further selling pressure in the coming months.

Broader Market Weakness Adds to Pressure

The crypto market has already seen a notable pullback in early 2026, with bitcoin dropping roughly 23% year-to-date and total market capitalization declining sharply. Heightened volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions, and growing correlation with weakening equity markets have all contributed to bearish sentiment.

Macro concerns , including slowing global growth, uncertain interest-rate outlooks, and delayed regulatory clarity in key markets like the U.S. , have pushed investors toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, reducing appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

No Major Platform Collapses This Cycle

Despite the downturn, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current drawdown appears less severe than previous crypto bear markets. Unlike earlier cycles, the market has not witnessed major platform collapses, suggesting that the digital asset ecosystem may be maturing and becoming more resilient over time.

At its worst point in early February, bitcoin had fallen about 50% from its late-2025 all-time high, yet roughly half of the circulating supply remained in profit , a sign that structural demand remains relatively strong.

Recovery Expected After Capitulation Phase

While the bank anticipates a near-term capitulation phase, it expects prices to recover gradually once a clear bottom is established. Kendrick noted that improving liquidity conditions, clearer regulatory frameworks, and renewed institutional participation could support a rebound through the rest of 2026.

In essence, Standard Chartered’s outlook suggests that the current weakness may represent a cyclical correction rather than a breakdown of the long-term crypto thesis. Short-term volatility and downside risks remain elevated, but the bank continues to view digital assets as a constructive long-term investment class driven by structural adoption trends and expanding real-world use cases.