The Next Few Years or Months The End of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s story may be heading for a slow fade. Whether through regulation, tech limits, or simply being outpaced by better coins, its radical promise is eroding. The irony? A currency once free from control now traded through ETFs by the few.
Diminishing Returns
Halving cycles show shrinking gains. Old wallets are unloading, and each cycle’s momentum weakens. The 2025 halving could mark the first with no real upside.
Influencers & the 40-Day Window
Hype is peaking. Tops have always arrived within ~546 days of a halving. The last two peaks hit 526 days. That puts the 2025 top between Sept 28 – Oct 20. History says the window is closing fast.
The Math
2012 halving: +9,300%
2016: +2,930%
2020: +702%
2024: forecast +160–180% → $160k–$180k by Oct 2025
If true, cycle 5 would yield just ~40%, topping near $70k, a macro lower high. That’s the recipe for a long multi-year bear market, possibly down to $6k by 2039.
Why It Fits
Returns compress by ~75% each cycle — “quartering” effect.
The Fibonacci 1.618 extension aligns with the $160k–180k forecast.
Together, they paint Bitcoin’s possible endgame: not with a bang, but a long, grinding decline.