📈 1. Market Volatility: Crypto as a "Pressure Valve"
Following the news of the Supreme Leader's death, the cryptocurrency market experienced intense volatility, highlighting its role as a primary liquidity channel during off-hours .
· Price Spike and Liquidations: Bitcoin and other major coins saw a sharp rebound. Bitcoin briefly surged over 7% to top $68,200**, while Ethereum jumped more than 10% . However, this剧烈波动 (jùliè bōdòng) led to significant losses for traders. Over 100,000 traders were liquidated in a 24-hour period, with total合约爆仓 (héyuē bàocāng) (contract liquidations) exceeding **$400 million. The majority of these were short positions, as prices moved against them .
· Weekend Liquidity Role: Analysts pointed out that with traditional markets closed, Bitcoin acted as the "weekend pressure valve," absorbing the selling pressure that would otherwise be spread across stocks, bonds, and commodities .
🇮🇷 2. Iran's "Shadow Economy" Under the Spotlight
Beyond market moves, the crisis has turned a spotlight on Iran's deep involvement with cryptocurrency, which functions as a parallel financial system .
· Massive Scale: Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis estimates that Iran's total crypto ecosystem reached $7.78 billion in 2025, a scale comparable to the GDP of a small nation .
· The IRGC's Dominance: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a major player. In the last quarter of 2025, addresses linked to the IRGC accounted for over 50% of all Iranian crypto inflows, receiving more than $3 billion .
· State Mining and Stablecoins: Iran legalized Bitcoin mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized electricity . It's estimated that Iran accounts for 2% to 5% of global mining power, with the state reportedly mining Bitcoin at a very low cost of around $1,300 per coin** . Meanwhile, the Central Bank accumulated at least **$507 million in USDT in 2025, likely in an attempt to stabilize the plummeting rial and facilitate trade .
· Citizens Seek Refuge: As the national currency, the rial, has lost over 96% of its value against the dollar, ordinary Iranians are turning to Bitcoin as a store of value. During recent protests and internet shutdowns, there was a sharp increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from local exchanges to personal wallets .
💡 3. Prediction Markets and Suspected Insider Trading
The crisis also played out on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, where several contracts related to Iran saw massive trading volume .
· The market asking if the Supreme Leader would leave power attracted over $45 million in bets .
· Blockchain analysis suggested possible 内幕交易 (nèimù jiāoyì) (insider trading) , as several newly created accounts made highly profitable bets just hours before the strikes began, earning nearly $1 million .