In this post, I'll share a short position in BTC that I plan to open and why.
It will be a swing-trading position in at least 4 stages: 2 opening sells and a minimum of 2 closings, as this is how I usually do it, and it will be as follows:
- First sale with 50% of the capital at 75,000 --> price located in a high resistance zone due to the presence of the 50-period moving average on the daily chart, which also served as lows in April 2025 and highs in March 2024. This, combined with its coincidence with the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level, an order block on the daily chart, and a fair value gap (FVG) on the weekly chart, creates an ideal zone for opening a short position.
- Second sale with 50% of the capital at 80000 --> if I see the price approaching with weakness I might make the sale a little earlier at 79800-79950, but I think that if the price breaks strongly above 75000 it could reach 80000 because it was the low of the previous movement, it is in the 0.5 Fibonacci zone and could coincide with the 100 daily moving average if the movement is slower.
I also want to add that there has already been a death cross on the 3-day chart, and another one is about to be completed on the weekly chart, reinforcing my hypothesis of a trend continuation.
For profit-taking, I plan to proceed as follows:
- TP1: I'll exit with 80% of the position at 55,000. I'll keep the remaining 20% open with a profit stop and close it when I deem it appropriate.
As for the stop-loss, I'll place it at 87,700, above the 100-period moving average on both the daily and weekly charts, the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level, and behind a wall of liquidity at lower prices. Finally,
the risk-reward ratio is approximately 1:2, and if the price doesn't reach my opening order, it doesn't matter; I simply won't execute the trade.
That's all for now.
Thanks for reading.