A Bitcoin futures study focuses on analyzing and forecasting the price movement and market dynamics of Bitcoin futures contracts using quantitative methods, particularly modern machine learning algorithms. Such studies typically leverage high-frequency trading data from major exchanges—like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)—to predict short- and long-term price trends, which is crucial for investors, financial institutions, and regulators seeking to manage risk and understand the market's evolving nature
Scope and Objectives•$BTC
Investigate the performance of various predictive models, including machine learning techniques, in forecasting the direction and magnitude of Bitcoin futures price changes.
Assess the efficiency of futures markets in comparison to spot Bitcoin trading, focusing on market volatility, liquidity, and the impact of macroeconomic events
Provide insights into risk management strategies and price discovery for institutional and retail participants using Bitcoin futures
Expected Outcomes•$BTC
Demonstrate whether machine learning algorithms can consistently outperform random and classical models in forecasting futures prices, especially during volatile periods (like the COVID-19 pandemic).
Identify which model or models achieve the highest prediction accuracy and can be practically applied for trading or risk management.
Contribute to academic literature on cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the growing legitimacy and institutional adoption of Bitcoin derivatives