Iran just rejected Pakistan's mediation offer. The Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The clock is now under 24 hours.
Pakistan offered to host U.S.-Iran talks. Iran said no. No breakthrough. No deal.
Two paths remain.
Path One: Iran agrees to reopen. Oil drops to $80. Inflation eases. Rate cuts return. Risk assets rally.
Path Two: Iran refuses. Oil spikes past $150. Inflation jumps. Fed hikes. Risk assets bleed.
WTI crude hit $111.54 on April 3 — an 11.4% single-day gain. Brent touched $141.37, highest since 2008.
The Strait carries 20% of global oil supply. Its closure is the largest energy disruption in history.
Bitcoin dropped 2.8% from midweek highs, now near $66K-$67K. S&P 500 fell 9%. Nasdaq dropped over 12%.
CPI Friday expected to jump from 2.4% to 3.1% — first inflation print reflecting the war.
The Fed can't cut. Oil-driven inflation forces higher rates. Some traders are pricing a rate hike by October.
Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets is back. The "digital gold" narrative is being tested.
Clearing levels: if BTC breaks $69,830, over $650M in shorts liquidate. If BTC breaks $63,846, over $520M in longs get wiped.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important chart in the world right now. Every market is waiting for the same signal: a ceasefire.
Until then, expect volatility and binary outcomes.
Not advice. Just tracking the setup.