Toncoin (TONUSDT) — H4
Formation of Wave 3 + Trendline Breakout
Bullish Continuation Scenario
🔎 Market Structure — H4
On the H4 timeframe, TONUSDT is showing a bullish continuation setup after breaking above the local descending trendline.
The previous downside movement appears to be a corrective phase, while the current breakout suggests that the market may be transitioning into Wave 3 to the upside.
Key technical signals:
breakout of the local descending trendline
completion of the corrective Wave 2 structure
bullish reaction from the lower support area
recovery above the short-term structure
impulse activation after the correction
The setup aligns with an Elliott Wave continuation model, where Wave 3 develops after price exits the corrective channel.
📐 Elliott Wave Context
Wave 1: initial bullish impulse
Wave 2: corrective pullback within the structure
Wave 3: active bullish expansion scenario
📌 Key principle:
The bullish scenario remains valid as long as TON stays above the low of Wave 1.
A breakdown below this level would invalidate the current bullish Wave 3 setup and may indicate a deeper corrective structure.
📍 Entry
Entry: 1.990
The entry is positioned:
after the breakout of the descending trendline
above the local corrective structure
inside the bullish impulse activation zone
with invalidation placed below the Wave 1 low
🎯 Target Levels — Wave 3 Projections
Targets are based on the projected bullish impulse structure and Fibonacci extension zones:
TP1: 2.265
TP2: 2.685
TP3: 3.115
TP4: 3.558
Each target represents a potential reaction zone where partial profit-taking or short-term consolidation may occur during the development of Wave 3.
🛑 Invalidation / Stop Loss
Stop Loss: 1.844
The stop is placed at the low of Wave 1, which:
protects the setup from structural invalidation
confirms that the bullish Wave 3 scenario is no longer valid if breached
keeps risk clearly defined below the key impulse low
separates normal pullback movement from a full scenario invalidation
📊 Risk / Reward Overview
Entry: 1.990
Stop: 1.844
Risk: approximately 7.34%
Target potential:
TP1: approximately 13.82% upside / RR ≈ 1.88
TP2: approximately 34.92% upside / RR ≈ 4.76
TP3: approximately 56.53% upside / RR ≈ 7.71
TP4: approximately 78.79% upside / RR ≈ 10.74
🧠 Risk & Trade Management
This is a bullish trend-following setup based on the formation of Wave 3 after a corrective trendline breakout.
Recommended management approach:
take partial profits at TP1 / TP2
reduce risk once price confirms continuation above the breakout zone
move stop to breakeven after a strong bullish impulse develops
avoid entering after extended candles without a pullback
scaling can be considered only on controlled intrawave corrections
📌 Summary
TONUSDT on H4 is forming a bullish Wave 3 continuation setup after a breakout of the local descending trendline.
The bullish scenario remains active above 1.844, with upside targets at 2.265, 2.685, 3.115, and 3.558.
The setup is invalidated if price breaks below the Wave 1 low.
