Crypto analyst Chain Mind says Bitcoin’s bear market may not be over — and he’s pointing to historical moving-average behavior as proof. Chain Mind told followers on X that BTC has never truly found a cycle low without first touching the weekly EMA300 (the 300-period exponential moving average on the weekly chart). He cites 2020 and 2022 as precedents, when Bitcoin tagged that level just before the cycle lows — finishing roughly 10% below the EMA in 2020 and about 15% below it in 2022. Because BTC bounced from roughly $60,000 in this cycle without ever hitting the EMA300, Chain Mind argues “the real bottom isn’t in.” If history repeats, he says, Bitcoin would likely need to revisit roughly $58,000 to satisfy the pattern and mark the final low of this bear cycle. Bearish structure echoes 2022 In a follow-up post, Chain Mind noted additional parallels with 2022. He flagged a rejection at the 200-day moving average (200D MA) — the same behavior seen in the last bear market — and pointed out that BTC had recently re-tagged the 200D MA near $82,000. According to his read of the pattern, a repeat could imply a 40%–60% drop from that rejection point, which he interprets as putting a true cycle bottom in the roughly $50,000–$55,000 range. Market context and catalysts Bitcoin’s pullback comes after failing to hold above the psychological $80,000 level. Traders are wrestling with several bearish catalysts: heightened geopolitical risk from the US-Iran conflict, resurging inflation, renewed bets on further Fed tightening, and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to delay approval of tokenized stocks — a move that pressured broader crypto markets. A more bullish view: Kaleo Not everyone agrees on an imminent deep low. Crypto analyst Kaleo urged traders to “zoom out,” saying the longer-term plan for BTC remains intact despite some traders betting against a $100,000 rally this year on Kalshi. Kaleo’s roadmap: a retest into the lower $70,000s, a rebound to $80,000–$90,000 where BTC could chop through the summer, followed by a push above $100,000 and a new all-time high in the fall/winter. He also flagged the CLARITY Act — potential U.S. legislation — as a catalyst that could trigger a large rally if passed before year-end. Price snapshot At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $75,400, down more than 2% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Bottom line: Technical history and recent moving-average rejections have some analysts warning that a deeper pullback remains possible, while others expect consolidation and a later breakout. Traders should weigh both scenarios and the macro events that could push price action either way. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news