Market Overview: Geopolitics & Divergence
Equities: Stocks notched another all-time high after a ~1% gap-up on Iran-US peace rumors. (Cue the deja vu—we'll probably see the same headlines in 2030).
Crypto: Bitcoin continues to lag, sitting roughly 40% below its ATH.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Breakdown
Last week, we highlighted $75k as the crucial daily higher low. The market dipped, swept the liquidity, and held it beautifully. If you bought that dip, congrats.
However, because the weekend bounce was driven by fleeting geopolitical news, this week will test the market's true grit.
The Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin is currently sandwiched between two major zones:
The Floor ($75k): The daily higher low. As long as BTC holds above this on the daily close, the internal structure remains structurally bullish.
The Ceiling ($78.3k - $78.4k): The 12-hour lower high and weekly resistance. Reclaiming this zone clears the runway to test the $82.9k highs.
[Upside Targets: $82.9k+] ▲ ========================== $78.3k (The Ceiling) Consolidation / No Man's Land ========================== $75.0k (The Floor) ▼ [Downside Targets: $71k - $73k]
Your Playbook This Week
If you missed the $75k sweep, chasing the middle of the range is risky. Your clean setups are:
Breakout Buy: Wait for a clean break and hold above $78.3k for continuation.
Pullback Buy: Look for a retest and hold of the $75k support.
The Bear Pivot: If $75k breaks down, expect a deeper correction into the $71k–$73k pocket.
What’s your move this week? Let me know in the comments! Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Contains third-party opinions.