A few weeks ago, we showed how a trend overlay on bitcoin helped salvage 2025 returns. Our Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI) signaled the coming "Significant Downtrend" in mid-October, allowing strategies to step aside and preserve capital. For advisors and institutions building long-term crypto allocations, we noted that trend-informed strategies can help "smooth the ride" and keep folks in the game.
In last week’s Crypto Long & Short, we reiterated the view that there can be no broad digital asset class rally without ETH participating–if not leading. Like it or not, Ethereum is the standard bearer for blockchain adoption narratives. It is–in the eyes of many–not an “altcoin.” When ETH rallies, it signals something larger is afoot:that stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenization are gaining mindshare in the global consciousness. We noted that the Fusaka upgrade is an embodiment of the kind of progress, focus, and yes – messaging that will foster even greater mindshare.
Still, ETH has been quite a handful in 2025, making conviction--and sizing--a challenge.
The case for Ether trend
This brings us to a natural question: how does our trend strategy work on ETH? We launched the Ether Trend Indicator (ETI) alongside BTI back in March 2023, using the same quartet of moving average crossover signals. We tested those signals on both assets, liked what we saw, and have not had need to alter them since.
ETH price color-coded by Ether Trend Indicator (greens are uptrend, yellow neutral, reds downtrend)
Source: CoinDesk Indices
If you think about why time series momentum should work–new information prompts different segments of the market over time–then ETH seems like a good candidate. Hedge funds and crypto-native derivatives traders are more likely to start a trend. ETF flows are more likely to follow.
ETH has had three prominent phases in 2025: A Q1 breakdown, a Q2-Q3 powerhouse rally, and the heartbreaking Q4 drawdown. We applied a systematic trend strategy (live since Oct 2023) following ETI to ETH and the results are startling.
ETH trend strategy (live since Oct 2023) helped smooth the ride
Source: CoinDesk Indices. "ETIS1" strategy. Methodology here. Hypothetical results ignoring transactions costs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
ETI has shown ETH to be in Downtrend for 5 days and in Significant Downtrend for the previous 29. For a marketplace numb from calling bottoms, maybe it’s just better to follow the signals and wait for the trend to reverse.
Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt
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