As we can see, the BTC cooled off enough from its peak level in summer and correction keeps going, people are still wondering if this the end of a bullish cycle? Well, we didn't even started, there is a lot of growth we can expect in 2026. Taking into consideration that the FED finally cut interest rates by other 0.25 basis points and now the current rates are around of 3.75% level which are the lowest measures since the Covid-19 era.
Additionally, the recent publication of CPI showed us how inflation is weaking in the USA, the expected data was 3,1% while the real numbers were 2,7% that indicates that the USA economy is slowing down and the FED perceived that as a signal for lowering interest rates. Besides that, they announced about the quantative easing monetary policy which means there is a lot of cheap money is going to flow into markets and it's just a matter of the time the market sentiment will be shifter to risk-on assets.
Recently Donald Trump announced about dividends of $2000 that he is going to giveaway to every citizen of the USA. Other factors that indicate we have to be patient for the growth on BTC is that XAAUSD, XAGUSD, and even S%P500 are hitting new all time highs, while BTC is still in flat mode.
We took into consideration all the fundamental factors, now let's take a look at BTC chart from tecnical analysis. I specially opened higher timeframe on 1-D because it's essential to look at the pictured wider. The price isn't in a bearish zone because according to EMA 100/200 lines, we can see how BTC was bouncing back multiple times from EMA 100 level, the price is held above that level, preventing it from moving into the critical red zone, franky speaking, we are still in a flat mode and we are on the phase of distribution where a lot of old hodlers of BTC are selling their BTCs in massive volumes, add to that ETFs, millions of dollars are flowing out from the crypto market.
Also, we could see a bearish divergence on BTC, where the price made two top peaks, the second is higher than the first one, and RSI index showed us two low levels, the first top is higher than the second one which indicates about a bearish signal on higher timeframes, after a while BTC finally cooled off enough and that bearish divergence dissapeared on the chart, that alone gives us a green light for BTC recovering
, so all we have to do is look at the chart carefully and wait for the reversal move and that's where we gotta be fast enough to open a long position on time. I hope 2026 year will began with big green candles. When all is said and done, I'd like to hear your thoughts about my opinion. Please, don't be shy to share your comments under this post. Good luck to everyone!
