The headlines are flashing red: $175M in ETF outflows has hit the market, and fear is ramping up. Bitcoin is currently testing the $87k range, and the question on everyone’s mind is: Are we heading to $80k—or lower?
Let’s look at the on-chain reality vs. the panic. 📊
The "Institutional Reset"
The $175M exit isn't a "crash"—it's a rebalancing act.
After the massive run-up to $125k in October, institutions are de-risking ahead of Q1 2026. Data shows these outflows are primarily from "fast money" funds, while long-term holders (checking the Coin Days Destroyed metric) are not selling.
Technical Analysis: The $80k Sandbag 🧱
Support Zone: $80,000 - $82,000 is the "Golden Pocket" support.
Liquidity: There is a massive wall of buy orders sitting at $79,500.
RSI Reset: The daily RSI has finally cooled off from "Overbought" to "Oversold" territory, historically a signal for a bounce.
My Prediction: The "Bear Trap" 🔮
I believe we will see a wick down to $79,800 to liquidate over-leveraged longs.
Do not panic sell there.
This drop is likely the final "Bear Trap" before the Q1 2026 Rally, where liquidity conditions are expected to ease.
Strategy:
If we touch $80k, I am deploying capital into high-beta alts. This is an accumulation zone, not a capitulation zone.
👇 Are you setting buy orders at $80k, or waiting for lower?
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