The fourth quarter of 2025 has seen Bitcoin endure significant market corrections, with prices even falling to $80,000. As the leading cryptocurrency struggled to regain its upward momentum, recent on-chain data has surfaced, indicating limited prospects for a substantial price surge.
Specifically, demand from investors making transactions in the $0–$10,000 range has turned negative once more, based on a 30-day change, suggesting a lack of new retail inflows since mid-December.
This $0–$10,000 transaction group is often viewed as a gauge of retail activity, and a sustained negative reading usually indicates waning interest among smaller investors, rather than active selling by larger holders. Kesmeci notes that retail demand began to weaken around December 14, reversing a period of temporary stabilization.
Simultaneously, the total retail transfer volume has retreated, hovering around the $375 million to $400 million mark. This pullback indicates that retail investors are pulling back, but not necessarily fleeing the scene. The data points to a lack of urgency, a sense of detachment rather than outright panic, as traders opt to observe the market's unpredictable price movements. Consequently, despite the absence of fresh capital entering the market, there's no cause for alarm among investors.
The demand from Bitcoin retail investors hints at a continuation of the broader consolidation phase currently affecting Bitcoin. Since mid-December, the leading cryptocurrency has been trapped within a range of $85,000 to $90,000, encountering significant resistance at both ends of that spectrum.
The lack of fresh retail investors is stalling any upward movement. Historically, significant price increases have depended on smaller investors joining in to support the buying power of institutions and larger players. Conversely, the absence of widespread selling suggests that downward pressure is currently limited.
Bitcoin seems poised to stay within its current trading range unless something significant happens to shake things up. Many are hopeful for a strong start to the new year, pointing to anticipated interest rate cuts and a possible shift of capital from a booming commodities market.
However, some analysts are advising caution, pointing to signs of capitulation that could mean the corrections that started in October might continue into the first quarter of 2026. As of now, Bitcoin is priced at $87,401, showing a slight 0.3% increase over the last 24 hours.
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