Everybody is ignoring it.
The massive red bar you see is the principal amount of US debt expiring in the next 12 months.
OVER $8 TRILLION DOLLARS.
Here’s why it matters:
The US Treasury made a FATAL MISTAKE.
They shortened the duration of their debt when rates were near zero.
NOW, THE BILL IS DUE.
We’re about to force a rollover of trillions in ZIRP-era paper (issued at ~0.5%) into a 4.5%+ rate environment.
Why this is a black swan:
This isn't about paying it off, it’s about repricing risk.
1: Debt Service Explosion: As this red bar rolls over, the Interest (Green) component on the budget will parabolic.
2: Liquidity problems: Who has the balance sheet to absorb this supply without yields spiking?
This is a mechanical squeeze on the US sovereign balance sheet.
It forces a choice: Austerity (Depression) or Yield Curve Control (Inflation).
Most analysts are looking at P/E ratios, but they should be looking at the structure.
Interest expense just hit $1 Trillion/year, consuming 19% of all federal tax revenue.
That’s not a projection, that’s today’s reality.
We are borrowing new debt just to pay the interest on old debt.
That’s the definition of a ponzi financing unit.
Btw, I’ve called every major top and bottom for over 10 YEARS.
When I make a new move, I’ll share it here for everyone to see.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it. Trust me.