📅 January 30
Throughout 2025, a powerful narrative took hold: if money devalues, the natural escape is to seek refuge in bitcoin and gold. Both assets advanced together under the so-called “debasement trade,” attracting billions from retail and institutional ETFs.
📖The report, led by analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, shows how retail investor behavior was the first to shift. For much of 2025, they simultaneously bought Bitcoin and gold ETFs as a hedge against the loss of purchasing power. However, by August, the accumulated flows into Bitcoin ETFs stopped growing, and in the fourth quarter, they began to decline.
Meanwhile, gold ETFs saw accelerated growth, closing the year with nearly $60 billion in accumulated inflows. Silver replicated this pattern, concentrating most of its inflows in the last quarter of the year, just as Bitcoin ETFs were experiencing capital outflows.
For JPMorgan, this coincidence is not accidental, but a direct rotation from bitcoin to precious metals by the retail investor.
Institutional behavior reinforced this dynamic. The bank used CME futures open interest as a benchmark and detected a sharp increase in long positions on silver during the last quarter of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, driven primarily by hedge funds.
Gold showed a similar pattern throughout the year. In contrast, Bitcoin futures did not register a comparable increase in institutional positioning.
Momentum indicators followed by trend traders, such as CTAs, now show extreme divergence. Gold appears in overbought territory, silver in deeply overbought territory, and Bitcoin in overbought territory.
This type of positioning, according to analysts, increases the risk of profit-taking and mean reversion in metals, something that has already begun to be observed with recent pullbacks in both assets.
Topic Opinion:
When capital massively shifts to one side of the ship, the risk is no longer in the asset that was abandoned, but in the one everyone is chasing. If Bitcoin is technically oversold while gold and silver show clear signs of buying saturation, the next unexpected move could come from the less crowded side.
💬 Do you think capital will shift back from gold and silver to Bitcoin?
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