UBS has significantly revised its gold price forecasts for 2026, driven by what it describes as "extraordinary" investment demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

As of late January 2026, UBS has raised its base-case target to **$6,200 per ounce**, up from its previous projection of $5,000. This revision comes as spot gold prices shattered records earlier this month, briefly touching an all-time high of **$5,594.82**.

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## 2026 Price Targets at a Glance

UBS has provided a detailed roadmap for 2026, including specific targets for the quarters and potential economic scenarios.

| Period / Scenario | Price Target (per oz) | Notes |

| --- | --- | --- |

| **Q1–Q3 2026 (Mar, Jun, Sep)** | **$6,200** | **New Base Case** (up from $5,000) |

| **End of 2026 (Dec)** | **$5,900** | Expected modest dip post-US midterm elections |

| **Upside Scenario (Bull Case)** | **$7,200** | Triggered by sharp geopolitical escalation |

| **Downside Scenario (Bear Case)** | **$4,600** | Risk of a hawkish Federal Reserve or USD strength |

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## Key Drivers for the Upgrade

UBS analysts highlighted several structural factors fueling this aggressive price hike:

* **Strong Investment Momentum:** January 2026 saw a 20% gain in gold prices—the strongest monthly performance since 1980—fueled by heavy ETF inflows and physical bar/coin demand.

* **Central Bank Accumulation:** Central banks continue to pivot toward "stateless" assets. UBS projects total central bank purchases to reach **950 metric tons** in 2026.

* **Macro Uncertainty:** Concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the potential for a "cash-crush" or liquidity crisis have reinforced gold's status as the ultimate safe haven.

* **US Midterm Elections:** While UBS expects a peak in the first three quarters, they anticipate a 5% "uncertainty premium" will fade slightly once the November 2026 elections conclude.

## How Others Compare

UBS isn't the only bank looking at the $6,000 level. Other major institutions have also reset their expectations:

* **Deutsche Bank:** Raised its 2026 target to **$6,000**.

* **Société Générale:** Expects **$6,000** by end-of-year, suggesting this may even be conservative.

* **Goldman Sachs:** Currently targeting **$5,400** by December 2026.

> **Note:** Despite the bullish targets, the market remains volatile. Gold recently experienced a sharp 4–9% "profit-taking" correction after its parabolic run, which analysts describe as a "healthy air pocket" before the next leg up.

Would you like me to look into the specific performance of gold-backed ETFs or mining stocks to see how they are reacting to these new targets?