UBS has significantly revised its gold price forecasts for 2026, driven by what it describes as "extraordinary" investment demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

#USGovShutdown

As of late January 2026, UBS has raised its base-case target to **$6,200 per ounce**, up from its previous projection of $5,000. This revision comes as spot gold prices shattered records earlier this month, briefly touching an all-time high of **$5,594.82**.

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## 2026 Price Targets at a Glance

UBS has provided a detailed roadmap for 2026, including specific targets for the quarters and potential economic scenarios.

| Period / Scenario | Price Target (per oz) | Notes |

| --- | --- | --- |

| **Q1–Q3 2026 (Mar, Jun, Sep)** | **$6,200** | **New Base Case** (up from $5,000) |

| **End of 2026 (Dec)** | **$5,900** | Expected modest dip post-US midterm elections |

| **Upside Scenario (Bull Case)** | **$7,200** | Triggered by sharp geopolitical escalation |

| **Downside Scenario (Bear Case)** | **$4,600** | Risk of a hawkish Federal Reserve or USD strength |

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## Key Drivers for the Upgrade

UBS analysts highlighted several structural factors fueling this aggressive price hike:

* **Strong Investment Momentum:** January 2026 saw a 20% gain in gold prices—the strongest monthly performance since 1980—fueled by heavy ETF inflows and physical bar/coin demand.

* **Central Bank Accumulation:** Central banks continue to pivot toward "stateless" assets. UBS projects total central bank purchases to reach **950 metric tons** in 2026.

* **Macro Uncertainty:** Concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the potential for a "cash-crush" or liquidity crisis have reinforced gold's status as the ultimate safe haven.

* **US Midterm Elections:** While UBS expects a peak in the first three quarters, they anticipate a 5% "uncertainty premium" will fade slightly once the November 2026 elections conclude.

## How Others Compare

UBS isn't the only bank looking at the $6,000 level. Other major institutions have also reset their expectations:

* **Deutsche Bank:** Raised its 2026 target to **$6,000**.

* **Société Générale:** Expects **$6,000** by end-of-year, suggesting this may even be conservative.

* **Goldman Sachs:** Currently targeting **$5,400** by December 2026.

#FedHoldsRates

> **Note:** Despite the bullish targets, the market remains volatile. Gold recently experienced a sharp 4–9% "profit-taking" correction after its parabolic run, which analysts describe as a "healthy air pocket" before the next leg up.

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