#Semiconductors 🚨 SEMICONDUCTORS JUST HIT A LEVEL ONLY SEEN BEFORE THE 2000 CRASH.
Semiconductors now make up 19.7% of the S&P 500.
They were 2% in 1995.
At the dot-com peak in 2000, semiconductors hit 8% of the index before crashing 82%.
Today they sit at 19.7%, more than double that peak, the highest single-sector concentration in 30 years of S&P 500 data.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was also trading 65% above its 200-day moving average yesterday, a level only seen once before in history, right before the dot-com crash.
Michael Burry just opened short positions on Nvidia, Applied Materials, and SOXX, citing exactly this concentration. He said SOXX trades at over 16x sales and the setup mirrors 2000 in almost every measurable way.
The earnings picture is shifting too. Nvidia beat Q1 estimates by 18% in 2025. The most recent quarter, the beat was just 4%. The era of massive upside surprises is compressing fast as expectations catch up to reality.
Meanwhile the rest of the market is quietly doing well.
The median S&P 500 stock is tracking 25% earnings growth in Q2. Small caps are up. Equal-weight indices are outperforming. The broadening is already happening, most investors just aren't positioned for it yet.
19.7% in one sector with stretched valuations, compressed earnings beats, and the most crowded positioning in 30 years is a warning signal.
#S&P500