🚨 My CPI Read Says Powell Has a Window to Cut (CPI Leak)
Guys, I know many of you feel tomorrow is just another CPI day, but this one really matters. This is the kind of day that can decide
$BTC toward $100k or BTC back near $80k. Market is in a full uncertainty phase right now, and this is where blind trades usually hurts the most. That’s why I spent more than 3 hours digging into the CPI inputs instead of reacting to noise, and what I see is little different.
Looking at December data, price pressure is easing at the margin compared to November. Medical services and Medicare related prices stayed controlled, there was no upside shock here. Shelter is still positive but clearly slowing, which is normal with rent and OER lag. Core goods didn’t bounce the way many expected after holiday discounts, prices stayed mildly deflationary. Core services outside shelter remain firm, but stable, not accelerating. Energy added some upside late in the month, but its weight is not big enough to flip the whole CPI.
When you put everything together, December CPI is shaping near 0.30% m/m, with core closer to 0.25%, keeping YoY inflation around 2.7–2.8%. November came in a bit firmer around the 0.32% m/m area, so December looks marginally cooler, but still not close to the Fed’s 2% inflation target pace — not soft, not hot.
Now look at what markets are pricing. CME and other major sources are clustered around the same numbers. Traders are not positioned for a big downside miss, but also not ready for a hot surprise. That means even a clean, in-line print that looks a bit cooler can still be taken positive.
For Powell, this data doesn’t force a cut, but it removes pressure. And removing pressure gives flexibility back. My take is simple: this CPI doesn’t guarantee a 25bps cut, but it quietly opens the door. Don’t trade blind in this phase.
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