$BTC at z = -0.80: 1-Year Median Return Was +133%

Bitcoin is not just cheap.
It is statistically asymmetric.

Current power-law z-score: -0.80.

1-year median return: +133%
Win rate: 94%
Worst decile: +25%

2-year median return: +303%
Win rate: 100%
Worst decile: +122%

3-year median return: +726%
Win rate: 100%
Worst decile: +176%

Reward / pain improves with time:
365 days: ~2.3x
730 days: ~4.5x
1095 days: ~8.7x

First principles:
Below-trend Bitcoin needs time.

The power law pulls price upward.
Scarcity limits new supply.
Mean reversion does the work.

The edge is buying the downside.

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