fiscalstress

🚨 U.S. Debt Clock Hits Critical Levels 🚨

The Treasury has reached a rare and alarming milestone. In Q3 2025, U.S. interest payments totaled $981B, which annualizes to over $1.2 trillion — more than the projected 2026 defense budget (~$900B). In other words, the U.S. now spends more on debt servicing than defending itself.

Q1 2026 interest payments: $179B, up 13% from $160B a year earlier

Federal revenue to bondholders: 19% today, projected to rise to 22% by 2035

Treasury auctions are showing signs of stress:

August 2025’s 10-year auction tailed by 1.1 bps, first in six months

Bid-to-cover ratios declining

Primary dealers absorbing more supply as real buyers retreat

The refinancing wall looms large, with trillions in Treasuries maturing over the next 24 months into higher rates. Average marketable debt rate is 3.36%, up from 1.55% five years ago. Debt grows by $6.17B per day.

Options for the Treasury are grim:

1. Accept higher yields → larger deficits → faster debt spiral

2. Fed intervenes with Yield Curve Control → money printing → currency debasement

Global signals are also shifting:

Japan’s 30-year yields spiking, unwinding carry trades

Capital returning home, reducing foreign buying

Meanwhile:

Gold: $4,596 🥇

Silver: $90

Commodities surging 🌾

This isn’t an inflation panic — it’s confidence erosion. Bond markets whisper first, then demand more. Interest payments overtaking defense spending is the canary in the coal mine. Most aren’t watching yet, but they will soon. 👀

#USDebtCrisis #TreasuryWatch #BondMarketSignals #FiscalStress #GlobalMarkets