recoiltrader

🧭 Market Update – June 18 | Recoil Trader

Markets are standing at a critical crossroads — a mix of macro hesitation, geopolitical tension, and short-term technical indecision.

📉 FED WATCH:
The U.S. Fed held rates steady today at 4.25–4.50% — no surprise.
But the tone is shifting: the market is still pricing in a rate cut by September, though inflation remains sticky.

📌 What this means:
- No immediate liquidity boost
- Macro still in "wait-and-watch" mode
- Crypto momentum may stay muted short term

📊 BTC Technical Outlook:
- Hovering near: $105K
- Key support: $103.5K–$104K
- Key resistance: $108.5K–$110K
- Structure is still intact above $100K. But if $103K breaks, we may see a sweep toward $98K–$100K (a key recoil zone).
🔎 Watch RSI on 4H + daily — subtle bullish divergence forming, but no breakout yet.

📉 Altcoin Scene:
- ETH, SOL, XRP, APT – all facing rejection at mid-range
- No real strength until BTC leads
- Avoid catching falling knives — focus on support reclaim setups

BTC dominance stays high (64%) — alt season is still delayed.

⚔️ Geo Risk – Israel vs. Iran Conflict:
Tensions are growing in the Middle East again.
While not causing immediate panic, it is adding pressure to global risk markets— especially stocks and oil.
- Stocks slightly red
- Gold holding up
- BTC acting uncertain — a sign of mixed sentiment across risk assets

📌 If conflict escalates → flight to safety (USD, gold)
📌 If diplomacy prevails + Fed turns dovish → crypto may rebound hard

📈 Recoil Zones to Monitor:
- BTC: $103K–$104K → possible bounce zone
- ETH: watch $2,800 reclaim for strength
- SOL: eyes on $144–$147 zone

🧠 Recoil Trader Summary:
We're in a "compressed coil" — macro indecision, no Fed cut yet, and global tensions in play.
This isn't the time to force trades — it’s the time to prepare for a clean breakout or breakdown.

> Let’s trade the recoil, not the noise.

📍 Next post: BTC AND ALT-COINS SETUPS, Stay tuned.

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