What If the War Drags On for 4 Weeks? Strait of Hormuz in Focus 🚨
If the conflict continues for another month, all eyes will be on the Strait of Hormuz. Even Donald Trump has warned that prolonged fighting with Iran could seriously impact this critical route.
Almost 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows through this narrow passage. And if tensions stay high for four straight weeks, here’s what could happen:
Crude Oil
Supply fears would rise fast.
Oil prices could spike aggressively.
Brent might push toward $90–$100+ if disruptions grow.
Shipping insurance and freight costs would surge.
Gold $XAU (5320)
Gold sitting near 5320 would likely keep its geopolitical premium.
If oil runs toward $100, gold could climb higher.
Safe-haven demand would increase as investors look for protection.
Market Reaction
Global stock markets could come under heavy pressure.
The U.S. dollar may strengthen at first in a risk-off move.
Emerging markets could face fresh inflation stress.
Even if the Strait isn’t fully closed, just four weeks of instability alone could shake global markets hard.
