Hey folks, precious metals like gold and silver are getting a lot of attention right now, but analysts are warning that the big rally isn’t over correcting yet. Prices haven’t hit their true bottom, even with all the Middle East drama and trade tariff worries giving them some solid underlying support.
Silver had an insane run jumping 72% in just one month and a whopping 322% from the start of 2025. Gold wasn’t far behind, up 30% in that month and 115% year-to-date. After the pullback, silver has bounced back to about the 50% retracement level of its drop, but it’s still trailing gold, which has recovered roughly 70% of its losses.
Looking back at history for a reality check: those massive spikes in 1980 and 2011 ended up with brutal multi-year drops of 40-70%. The recent 37% plunge in silver over just a week or so fits right into those old patterns, but past cycles often took months or even years to find a real floor.
Geopolitics is adding more twists weekend missile action involving the US, Israel, and Iran shook things up, spiking oil while stocks dipped 1-2%. Gold got that classic safe haven lift, and the rest of the metals followed. Some of that risk premium was already baked into gold’s strong February rebound
On the brighter side, China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange cut silver margins to 24% from 27% and daily limits to 23%, with gold margins down to 18% too steps that should help liquidity over time.
ETF holders are still bullish on silver despite the swings. Right now, spot silver is around $87-89/oz while gold sits well above $5,300/oz.
The core investment story for gold and silver is still strong central bank buying, uncertainty, and demand aren’t going away. The real question is whether we need more time to shake out the over-the-top optimism from that January peak before the next real leg up kicks in.
What do you think dip buying opportunity or more pain ahead?
$XAG $XAU #Silver #PreciousMetals
