The primary ongoing war in recent news is the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which intensified over the past few days. Coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian sites, reportedly killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026. Iran responded with missile attacks on Israel and US bases in the region, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. This has heightened global tensions, disrupted oil supplies (with Brent crude spiking up to 13% to $82 per barrel), and raised inflation concerns amid potential prolonged military engagement.
### Impact on Gold
Gold has seen significant volatility as a classic safe-haven asset amid the geopolitical instability. Prices initially surged over 2% to test $5,400 per ounce on March 2, driven by haven demand and fears of broader Middle East disruption, including energy cost spikes and inflation. However, as of March 3, gold reversed gains, slipping below $5,200 in some spot markets (e.g., down 1.4% to around $5,252 per ounce), pressured by a strengthening US dollar that outweighed war-related uncertainty. Analysts note the "war premium" is diminishing as the US achieves initial military objectives, like regime change, though prolonged conflict could push prices toward $5,500–$6,000 if tensions persist. Overall, gold is up about 23% year-to-date, supported by central bank buying and investor fears of currency debasement.
### Impact on Silver
Silver's response has been more mixed and volatile than gold's, reflecting its dual role as both a safe-haven and industrial metal (used in manufacturing, solar panels, etc.). It spiked sharply on March 2 (up to 9% or more in some markets, hitting $95–$96 per ounce), but crashed 6–8% on March 3 to around $82–$83 per ounce, as profit-taking, a strong dollar, and concerns over war-disrupted global trade and industrial demand dominated. February 2026 saw a 10.4% decline despite tensions, highlighting how supply chain issues from the conflict outweigh safe-haven buying. The gold-to-silver ratio has collapsed recently, but silver's higher beta means it could face more downside if manufacturing slows further.
### Impact on Crypto
Cryptocurrencies experienced initial sell-offs as risk assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) dipping 4–7% from around $67,000 to $63,000 on the strikes, wiping out $128 billion from the total market cap and liquidating over $300 million in positions. Ethereum (ETH) and XRP followed suit, down 1–2%. However, prices have since recovered, with BTC stabilizing around $66,000–$69,000 and showing resilience despite the Hormuz closure and oil spikes. This bounce-back echoes past conflicts (e.g., 2024 Iran-Israel strikes), where crypto initially dropped but rebounded as investors viewed it as uncorrelated to traditional markets. Notably, in Iran, crypto activity surged—outflows from the largest exchange jumped 700% as locals converted collapsing rials to BTC for capital flight, bypassing sanctions and a failing banking system. Analysts suggest prolonged war could indirectly boost crypto if it leads to Fed rate cuts or money printing to fund US efforts, though it's no longer seen as a pure "digital gold" haven. BTC has lost about a third of its value year-to-date.
