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China is reportedly pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
There’s just one problem:
Iran didn’t close it.
In reality, several London-based insurers pulled war-risk coverage, effectively halting much of the shipping traffic through the strait.
China may have leverage over Tehran
(it buys roughly 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil).
But it has no leverage over Lloyd’s of London and the global insurance market that actually determines whether ships sail.
Until insurers believe the Gulf is safe again, the strait remains closed in practice.
(Analysis from Oran Dror)