The past 14 days of conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran (Operation Epic Fury) have sent a shockwave through the global economy, primarily triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
1. Energy: The Primary Driver
Oil Prices: Crude oil has been the "thermometer" of the crisis. Prices surged from around $70 to over $110 per barrel within days of the initial strikes. While it has slightly retreated to around $100, it remains highly volatile due to a 20% disruption in global supply.
Strait of Hormuz: The near-complete closure and reports of mining in this busiest oil-tanker route are the biggest concerns for long-term stability.
2. Stock Markets: Fear vs. Resilience
Initial Shock: Global markets saw sharp declines immediately following the February 28 strikes. Major Asian markets in South Korea and Thailand even triggered "circuit breakers" to stop panic selling after 8-12% drops.
Mixed Recovery: Wall Street has shown surprising resilience. The S&P 500 initially dropped but has stayed within 3% of its pre-war close, buoyed by recent suggestions from President Trump that the conflict might end soon.
3. Crypto: The New "Digital Gold"?
Bitcoin (BTC): Unlike traditional stocks, Bitcoin has actually performed well, rising about 10% to over $72,000 since the war began.
Market Sentiment: While crypto saw a massive $128 billion liquidation in the first minutes of the conflict, it rebounded faster than most assets. Investors are increasingly viewing it as a tool for "freedom and portability" when traditional banking systems in the Middle East face stress.
4. Safe Havens: Gold & The Dollar
Gold: Prices jumped on safe-haven demand, with some analysts like those at J.P. Morgan remaining bullish and forecasting prices could reach $6,300 by the end of 2026.
U.S. Dollar: The dollar has strengthened as investors flee to the world’s most liquid currency.
Summary: Market Indicators
Current geopolitical tensions have triggered a major split in the global market. Energy and "Safe-Havens" are seeing a massive surge; Crude Oil has broken the $100 mark due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while Bitcoin and Gold are both trending bullish as investors scramble for alternatives to traditional assets. In contrast, US Equities remain under heavy pressure, turning volatile and bearish as the market grapples with the dual threat of rising energy costs and stubborn inflation.
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