Tomorrow, April 15, is the IRS filing and payment deadline for US crypto taxes. For most individual holders, this is the date: no extensions on payment, even if you file later.And the market is already feeling it.Estimates from CoinGecko suggest that $2.8 billion in crypto selling pressure could enter the market as US investors liquidate holdings to cover capital gains tax obligations. The April 15 deadline applies to payment as well as filing, meaning investors who cannot defer need to raise cash before Wednesday.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan described the current market structure as a "coiled spring" with potential for a sharp move once uncertainty fades. His view is that once tax-driven selling subsides after April 15, relief buying and redeployed capital historically produce a 5 to 8 percent Bitcoin rally in the two weeks that follow.
The historical pattern is real. Bitcoin has closed April in the green roughly 70% of the time since 2013, with a median April return of 7.1%. From current levels, that would put BTC around $76,000 by month end.But here's the honest caveat. April 2026 differs from past years because the macro environment is more hostile. Oil above $100, the Fed on hold, and an unresolved war mean that post-tax relief buying faces headwinds that prior Aprils did not have. The $2.8 billion in estimated selling enters a market that is already structurally fragile, with 46 consecutive days of extreme fear.
So what's the actual setup? Tax selling is a known, temporary headwind. The moment it lifts on April 16, the market loses one of the more mechanical reasons people have been selling. If the Iran talks on April 15 also produce any positive signal — even a partial deal — you could see a fast move higher. There's $6 billion in short positions stacked between $72,200 and $73,500 waiting to be squeezed.If you're holding long-term, you probably already know what to do: nothing. Tax season selling is noise. If you've been waiting for an entry point, the next 48 hours might be one of the cleanest setups you'll see this month.Not financial advice. But the data is what it is.