The current market sentiment has seen the longest period with the #Altcoin fear & greed index<10.
A lot of people are questioning whether or not the cycle will last and whether there's an actual use case for $BTC.
There is. And it's the best moment to be allocating into this asset, and I'll write down why I think so.
Historically, bull markets have been quite strong, and there has been significant retail interest.
However, in the last cycle, there was no retail interest. As a matter of fact, #Altcoins basically didn't do anything.
The altcoins peaked in 2024 and corrected severely in 2025 (that was the bear market year).
Let's look at some historical context to put everything into perspective.
The upside in the bull cycles:
2013/2014 bull: +4.0 sigma in the actual peak of the bull
2017 bull: +4.0 sigma in the actual peak of the bull
2021 bull: +2.5 sigma in the actual peak of the bull
2024/2025 bull: +1.5 sigma in the actual peak of the bull
If you look at this data, it's clear that the markets have experienced weaker bull markets than the standard, and therefore, the upside has been lower relative to the mean.
The interesting part is the bear market.
2013/2014 bear: -3.0 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market
2017 bear: -3.0 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market
2021: -2.5 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market
2024/2025 bear: -1.5 sigma in the actual bottom of the bear market
Historically, $BTC never underperforms in a bear market.
This means the sigma outlier on the downside is usually 60-80% of the upside and is never heavier than the upside has been.
2013/2014 cycle: 75%
2017 cycle: 75%
2021 cycle: 100%
current cycle: has reached this level already
I clearly understand that people are aiming for that extended bear market and target $30-40K, because that's the standard 80% correction which should happen on #Bitcoin.
However, that's the wrong thesis if you compare the data to previous bull and bear markets in this asset.
The sigma-debt has already been paid off in the recent correction, and current market sentiment and conditions confirm this.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't expect a potential test of the lows anymore, that's definitely possible, I don't think that we'll see much more downside from here.
If you have that data point from a historical perspective, and the potential downside from here is 20-30%, it gives a clear R/R that you're looking for, right?
Instead of waiting for deeper corrections, as people always do in these markets, I'd rather look for levels to accumulate at and seek more income to allocate to this asset.