Crypto is seeing a relief rally as two major macro events collide today.
Geopolitics: Reports that the US and Iran have agreed on the wording of a peace deal sparked a risk-on move across markets oil dropped from above $91 to below $87, and SpaceX's historic IPO (near $2T valuation) added to the bullish tone.
BoJ Watch: The Bank of Japan's June 15-16 meeting is expected to deliver a rate hike to levels not seen since 1995. Cheap yen funding has powered the global "carry trade" into risk assets including crypto tightening could drain liquidity.
$BTC is holding $63K-64K, rebounding from ~$61.5K last week. Still down ~26.5% YTD, pressured by record ETF outflows, ~25K BTC in whale selling, and Strategy's first BTC sale in years.
$ETH trades near $1,650-1,700. Down ~17% in June but still +43.6% YTD the best performer among majors, despite ongoing ETF outflows.
$SOL sits around $66-67, up 2-7% on the relief rally after falling over 20% in June. Watch for the Alpenglow upgrade (sub-200ms finality) and SpaceX equity trading on-chain via Solana.
Other headlines: US Treasury seized ~$1B in Iranian crypto holdings; Russia plans 2-3% fees on "unfriendly" crypto (USDC, BNB) from July 1.
Bottom line: This looks like relief, not confirmation of a trend reversal. Watch the Iran deal's durability, BoJ tone, and ETF flows for direction.