​The latest U.S. employment data has delivered a surprise, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.4%, coming in stronger than the anticipated 4.5%. This unexpected labor market resilience is recalibrating expectations for the start of the year.

The Key Takeaways

  • Labor Market Strength: The drop to 4.4% suggests the economy is still running "hot," reducing the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to intervene.

  • Rate Cut Reset: Consequently, a January interest rate cut is now highly unlikely. Markets are pricing out a pivot for the month as the "higher for longer" narrative regains momentum.

  • New Focal Point: With the jobs data settled, investor attention has shifted entirely to the upcoming Supreme Court ruling, which is now viewed as the primary market mover.