📍#BTC Ding Ding Technical Analysis Report 2026-01-16
【Core Viewpoint】：Daily hit a wall, short-term dive. Losing 96K signals "Fake Breakout, Real Dump."
After failing to breach 99K, Bitcoin shows fatigue. While Daily MACD is still bullish, 4H momentum is exhausted. Crucially, 1H collapsed below EMAs and VWAP, flipping Medium Bearish. Selling pressure is heavy. Strategy: Short the intraday weakness; wait on macro.
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📊 Long-Term Trend: Small Bullish (1D Daily)
Market Status:
Daily structure remains bullish but is suffocating under the 99,452 - 104,316 resistance block. This is an iron wall. Failure here risks a Double Top.
【1D Swing Strategy】
• Key Action: Watch only. Do not FOMO at resistance.
• Defense/Pivot: 99,452.89
🛑 Trading Advice:
• Wait and See: Only a strong close above 99,452.89 confirms the bull run. Otherwise, prepare for a pullback.
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📊 Mid-Term Trend: Consolidation (4H Level)
Market Status:
4H MACD death cross; price clinging to 94,098. Danger signal. Bullish momentum is draining away.
【4H Swing Strategy】
• Key Action: Watch 94K support closely.
• Defense/Pivot: 94,098.15
🛑 Trading Advice:
• Wait and See: Don't gamble here. Losing 94K accelerates the drop.
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📊 Short-Term Trend: Medium Bearish (1H Level)
Market Status:
The ugliest chart. Closed below EMAs and 95,977. Weak bounce, bears in control. This is the clearest trade of the day.
【1H Swing Strategy】
• Key Action: Short the failed bounce; chase the breakdown.
• Defense/Pivot: 96,820.60
🛑 Short Setup:
• Short on Bounce (Limit): 95,977.54 ～ 96,820.60 (Allocate 60% capital)
• Chase Short (Breakdown): 94,761.74 (Allocate 40% capital)
• Take Profit (TP): 93,918.68 ～ 92,702.88
• Stop Loss (SL): 97,230.00
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📝 Summary & Advice
For Holders:
Short-term risk is high. Trim near 96K. If 94K breaks, the dip goes deeper.
For Non-Holders:
The main battlefield is the 1H short. Short near 96K resistance, targeting 94K or 92K.
