January 18 may turn into a critical stress moment for Ondo Finance, but not necessarily the catastrophe many traders are predicting. The upcoming $772 million ONDO token unlock has created fear across crypto circles, yet the real impact will depend on how liquidity reacts—not the unlock size alone.
Crypto market analyst Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022) suggests this event should be viewed as a liquidity experiment, not a final verdict on ONDO’s future. Token unlocks don’t force selling; they introduce choice. What matters is how the market absorbs that choice.
Scenario One: Smooth Absorption Signals Strength (Most Likely)
The healthiest outcome would see ONDO price remain relatively stable while additional supply enters the market gradually. Volume increases, but panic does not. This would indicate that early holders are not rushing to exit and that buyers are willing to absorb supply.
ONDO has already suffered a deep correction—nearly 80% down over the past year—which often removes emotional sellers long before unlock events occur. According to Sarosh, real damage usually happens when optimism is high and liquidity is thin. That’s not the current setup.
In this scenario, volatility exists, fear-driven headlines circulate, but the market structure survives. Sarosh estimates this path carries roughly a 60% probability, making it the base case.
Scenario Two: Sharp Drop, Then Recovery
A more uncomfortable—but still survivable—outcome would involve a short-term selloff. ONDO price could briefly dip 15% to 25% as newly unlocked tokens meet cautious buyers.
This type of move often feels worse than it actually is. Liquidity tightens temporarily, sentiment weakens, and charts look ugly. However, once sellers finish distributing, price tends to stabilize.
Sarosh assigns this scenario about a 25% likelihood, emphasizing that it represents turbulence—not structural failure. Importantly, this unlock happens before the Ondo Summit, meaning weak hands may exit early, potentially clearing the way for stronger positioning later.
Scenario Three: Breakdown Under External Pressure (Least Likely)
The true disaster case requires more than just unlocked tokens. For ONDO to enter a prolonged decline, broader market stress would likely need to coincide—such as a major Bitcoin drop or macro shock.
Sarosh places only a 15% probability on this outcome. Unlock-driven collapses are far more common near market tops, not during periods of caution and reduced hype. ONDO is already far from euphoric conditions.
The Real Test Isn’t the Unlock—It’s the Reaction
January 18 won’t declare ONDO a winner or loser overnight. Instead, it will quietly reveal whether ONDO functions as real infrastructure with depth, or just another speculative asset sensitive to supply changes.
Price behavior during and after the unlock will matter more than any headline. This moment may later be remembered as either background noise—or the point where ONDO proved it could carry real weight.#BinanceHODLerBREV #MarketRebound #WriteToEarnUpgrade
