January 18 could be a make-or-break moment for Ondo Finance (ONDO), but not in the way most headlines suggest. The upcoming $772 million token unlock has stirred fear across crypto circles. However, according to crypto analyst Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022), this event should be viewed as a liquidity stress test, not an automatic sell-off trigger.
That distinction is critical.
Token unlocks don’t force selling — they create the option to sell. How the market absorbs this new supply will reveal whether ONDO is fragile speculation or resilient infrastructure.
🔑 The Core Insight (Most Important Thing)
The unlock is not a verdict on ONDO — it’s a test of liquidity strength.
If the market absorbs supply without chaos, it signals durability. If not, weakness is exposed.
Scenario 1: Orderly Absorption (Most Likely – ~60%)
The healthiest outcome is calm digestion of new supply.
ONDO price holds structure
Volume stays controlled
No panic selling cascade
This would indicate:
Alignment among long-term holders
Limited urgency from early investors
Real liquidity depth
Importantly, ONDO is already down nearly 80% over the past year, meaning most emotional selling likely happened earlier. Unlocks tend to be more dangerous near all-time highs — not after deep drawdowns.
📌 What it means:
ONDO behaves more like infrastructure than a hype-driven token.
Scenario 2: Short-Term Flush, Then Stabilization (~25%)
The second path involves temporary pain, not permanent damage.
Possible 15–25% price drop
Knee-jerk selling as unlocked tokens hit the market
Liquidity briefly thins, sentiment worsens
But once forced sellers exit, price stabilizes.
This unlock also comes before the Ondo Summit, which matters. Unlocks ahead of narrative catalysts often:
Shake out weak hands early
Reset positioning
Prepare the market for the next phase
📌 What it means:
Volatility, not failure.
Scenario 3: Structural Breakdown (Least Likely – ~15%)
The bearish scenario requires more than just the unlock.
Liquidity dries up
Price enters a prolonged decline
Confidence erodes
Sarosh notes that unlock-driven collapses usually occur during euphoric market conditions. ONDO is far from euphoric, and sentiment is already cautious — reducing the odds of a true breakdown.
📌 What it means:
Only likely if broader market stress hits simultaneously.
Final Takeaway
January 18 is a forced honesty moment for ONDO.
Not a death sentence.
Not a guaranteed dump.
Just a simple question the market will answer:
Can ONDO handle increased supply without breaking?
Watching price behavior and liquidity response will be far more important than any scary headline. This moment may later be remembered as either meaningless noise — or the point where ONDO proved it could carry real weight.
