The price of PEPE is beginning to show early signs of a structural shift. After a recent move higher, it is holding above the 21-period Exponential Moving Average (21 EMA), which has now flipped from long-standing resistance into support. This technical development increases the probability that PEPE may be entering the early stages of a bullish reversal—provided market participation and volume confirm the move.
The 21 EMA Flip Marks a Technical Turning Point
Since early October last year, the 21 EMA had consistently capped upside attempts, rejecting every rally and reinforcing a bearish market structure. Each approach to this level ended with a pullback, preventing any sustained upside momentum.
That dynamic has now changed. Price has not only reclaimed the 21 EMA but has also managed to stay above it. This is significant because the 21 EMA is widely used as a trend filter—moves above it often mark the transition from corrective bounces to genuine trend shifts.
Why the Current Retest Matters
A breakout alone is not enough. What truly validates a trend change is the retest, where the market checks whether the reclaimed level can hold as support. PEPE is currently in this critical phase.
If price continues to close above the 21 EMA, it signals acceptance at higher levels and sustained buyer interest. This behavior often leads to the formation of higher lows—an essential ingredient for a bullish market structure.
Conversely, a drop back below the 21 EMA would significantly weaken the reversal thesis. That would suggest a failed breakout and raise the risk of a return to lower support zones.
Value Area Low Is the Next Key Hurdle
The next major resistance lies at the Value Area Low (VAL) on the volume profile. This level separates areas of low price acceptance from zones where the market has historically traded with higher volume.
PEPE has tested this area multiple times in the past, making it a meaningful barrier. A clean breakout above the VAL would indicate that the market is beginning to accept higher prices, opening the door for a rotation toward the Point of Control.
However, such a move must come with conviction—strong candle closes and a clear expansion in volume. Without that confirmation, the risk of another rejection remains elevated.
What to Watch Going Forward
In the near term, PEPE’s bullish outlook hinges on one key factor: continued support at the 21 EMA. As long as price holds above this moving average and maintains acceptance, the probability of a move toward higher resistance zones remains elevated.
The next major test will be whether PEPE can decisively break above the Value Area Low with volume confirmation. A successful breakout would strengthen the reversal narrative and further validate a shift in market structure. Without volume support, however, PEPE may remain stuck in consolidation for longer.
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