According to BlockBeats, CME FedWatch data from January 17 shows that traders have scaled back expectations for two U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026. The change follows remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested he may choose someone other than National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Market projections now show an 11.8% probability that there will be no rate cuts at all in 2026. The chance of a total 25 basis point cut stands at 30.3%, while expectations for a 50 basis point reduction are at 32.1% by year-end.
Trump later commented on Hassett, saying, “I want him to stay where he is, and we’ll see,” signaling that another candidate could be under consideration for the Fed Chair role—adding fresh uncertainty to future monetary policy expectations.
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