$XAU Morning Analysis: Gold Steady $4,600+ on Persistent Powell Probe & Tariff Delay – BTC Holds $95K Rotation Signals? 📊⚖️ January 17, 2026
Traders, morning pulse (global open): XAU firm near $4,600/oz after recent ATHs ~$4,639, supported by safe-haven demand from ongoing DOJ criminal probe into Chair Powell (subpoenas & indictment threats escalating amid bipartisan backlash) weakening USD, plus geopolitics & central bank buying.
✍️ Key Insights (Deep Trending Focus):
🔴 Catalyst: Powell probe intensifies (grand jury subpoenas Jan 10-11 over HQ testimony; Powell calls it "unprecedented intimidation," Sen. Warren labels "wannabe dictator" concerns, Dems demand congressional inquiry) – fuels Fed independence fears & rate-cut bets (75% odds no Jan change, two Q1 cuts), DXY below 107 post-soft CPI. Supreme Court tariff ruling delayed again (no Jan 14 decision; next pending) – $140B+ liquidity uncertainty keeps markets cautious. Geopolitics (Iran unrest) & China buying add premium.
🔴 Technical: Gold above $4,550 breakout – support $4,520-$4,550 (200-day EMA), target $4,700+. RSI positive divergence, volume accumulation on dips. BTC ~$95K-$96K hold (post-$97K peak), gamma pin cleared; BTC/Gold ratio oversold – rotation watch if tariff clarity or probe resolution arrives.
🔴 Context: Probe backlash & delay test discipline; gold hedge dominates chaos (up 70%+ YoY, fiat reserves lows); BTC duality as digital gold shines with inflows & whale buys, early 2026 trends (stablecoins, tokenization) favor upside volatility.
✍️ 2026 Structural Bullish Forecasts (Top Banks):
📌 Goldman Sachs: $4,900 year-end target, driven by central bank demand & macro risks.
📌 JP Morgan: $5,055+ Q4 average target, fueled by USD debasement & premiums.
Pro Tip: Binance Futures – 1% risk on probe/tariff vol. Long Gold $4,550 support (stops <$4,520); BTC/Gold <20 pe BTC rotation entries.
Fade spikes, scale confirmed flows!
Your take? Will Powell probe & tariff delay push Gold to $4,700+ soon, or BTC rotation to $100K accelerate first? Share key levels & plans below! 🔥
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