$ETH is currently trading near $3,134, down roughly 5% from its January highs, and compressing within a symmetrical triangle that has been developing since November — a structure typically preceding expansion.
However, underlying signals remain mixed.
On-chain data shows persistent whale distribution, with large holders (10K–1M ETH) steadily reducing exposure since mid-December. This suggests supply is being absorbed by smaller participants rather than strong conviction buyers.
While Ethereum spot ETFs briefly returned to net inflows on Jan 12, the broader picture is less constructive. Over the past four sessions, Ethereum ETFs have recorded approximately $345M in net outflows, pointing to softening institutional demand rather than sustained accumulation.
DeFi metrics reinforce this trend.
Ethereum TVL has declined sharply from ~$97B to ~$72B, reflecting reduced on-chain capital deployment and lower risk appetite across the ecosystem.
Compression creates opportunity — but direction is defined by participation.
Until flows, TVL, and large-holder behavior stabilize, ETH remains a market to monitor, not to chase.
Expansion will come.
The question is who is left to push it.
