Trump just announced new tariffs at the World Economic Forum.
At the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court is voting on whether to cancel those tariffs.
If you hold stocks, crypto, or any risk asset, read this carefully:
Tariffs stay = DUMP
Tariffs removed = DUMP
There is no bullish outcome here.
Most people still don’t understand how bad this setup really is.
Before tariffs even come into play, look at where the market already stands:
📊 Buffett Indicator (Total Market Cap / GDP) is near 224%
→ Highest level in history
→ Way above the Dot-Com peak (~150%)
→ Even higher than the 2021 top
📊 Shiller P/E is close to 40
→ This has only happened once in 150 years
→ Right before the 2000 crash
This market is priced for perfection.
It can’t survive a shock — and a trade war is a shock.
Now here’s where it gets really dangerous 👇
1️⃣ Today: Trump at Davos
Trump is speaking at the World Economic Forum.
Global leaders, CEOs, and markets are watching one thing: trade policy.
Any sign of escalation = instant volatility.
2️⃣ The “Greenland” Escalation
10% tariffs on European allies (France, Germany, UK, etc.)
Scheduled to start Feb 1
These hit multinational companies trading at ~22x earnings.
There is zero margin for error.
3️⃣ The Constitutional Flashpoint
Rumors say the Supreme Court may rule Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal.
Anyone experienced in markets knows what that means:
There is NO positive outcome.
Let’s break it down 👇
Scenario A: Tariffs Stay (Inflation + Margin Shock)
→ Corporate profits get crushed
→ Companies can’t pass 10–20% cost increases to tired consumers
→ They’re forced to absorb the hit
📉 History check:
• 2002: Bush’s steel tariffs killed 200,000 jobs in steel-using industries
• 2018: Just tariff threats caused instant sell-offs
• CAC 40 dropped 1.7% in one day
Bottom line:
This market is overvalued, fragile, and standing on a geopolitical landmine.
No matter what happens with tariffs… risk assets lose firs
