📊 Current Structure
Bitcoin is still trading above $75,000, a critical weekly support. This zone has already been retested — and what BTC does here will decide the next major trend move.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is now trading below the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, putting
If Bitcoin defends the April 2025 low, then $75K likely becomes the macro bottom.
🔹 What this means:
Higher-high / higher-low structure remains intact
The drop to $75K is a healthy correction, not a trend reversal
Long-term bullish cycle survives
📉 Yes, the 20W MA pushing into the 50W MA is bearish — but not a guaranteed bear market signal. Often, this happens after a sharp correction, not at the start of a full downtrend.
📈 Key bullish confirmation:
Bitcoin must reclaim and close above the 50-week MA, currently around $100,400.
A clean weekly close above this level = momentum fully back with the bulls.
The most important condition?
➡️ Hold the April 2025 low and start printing strong weekly closes showing buyer strength.
🔴 SCENARIO 2: APRIL LOW BREAKS → $60K IN PLAY
This one is straightforward.
If Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low, market structure breaks.
🚨 What changes:
Higher-low structure fails
$75K support is invalidated
Downside opens toward $50K–$60K, a major psychological and historical reset zone.
This range often acts as the first major stop after deep cycle corrections.
⚖️ WHAT DECIDES THE WINNER?
Everything comes down to two questions:
1️⃣ Does Bitcoin hold $75,000 on weekly closes?
2️⃣ Does Bitcoin defend the April 2025 low?
✅ If both hold → Scenario 1 (Bullish recovery)
❌ If both break → Scenario 2 ($60K path)
📌 No emotions. No noise. Just levels.
n #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #BTCWeekly #BitcoinPrice #CryptoMarket #Trading #PriceAction #mdkharoonafridi
