macropressure

Em 28 de janeiro de 2026, o presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, falará após a reunião de janeiro do FOMC e, para o cripto, este evento traz um risco real de queda.
Embora as taxas de juros de referência sejam amplamente esperadas para permanecer inalteradas, a decisão em si não é o problema.
A linguagem é. O tom é. A orientação futura é.
O que se espera que Powell cubra:
🔹 A justificativa econômica para manter as taxas estáveis
🔹 A última leitura do Fed sobre as tendências da inflação
🔹 Força do mercado de trabalho vs. sinais de resfriamento

Crypto doesn’t trade in a vacuum.
It reacts to liquidity, policy signals, confidence, and narrative and right now, all four are converging inside a 72-hour macro pressure window that traders can’t afford to ignore.
This week isn’t about hype coins or random pumps.
It’s about macro alignment and whether risk assets get breathing room, or get squeezed again.
Over the next three days, six major events collide.
Any one of them can move markets. Together, they create one of the most fragile setups in months.
Let’s break it down clearly and without noise
1️⃣ Trump’s Speech Energy, Inflation & Narrative Control
Today | 4:00 PM ET
Trump will speak on the U.S. economy and energy prices.
Why this matters for crypto:
• Energy prices drive inflation expectations
• Inflation expectations drive Fed policy assumptions
If Trump emphasizes lower energy prices, markets may interpret political pressure to cool inflation mildly supportive for risk assets in the short term.
But there’s a second layer:
Trump has already hinted at new tariffs.
Tariffs are inflationary. Inflationary policy forces the Fed to stay restrictive longer.
Markets don’t react to speeches they react to what those speeches imply for future liquidity.
This sets the narrative tone for everything that follows.
2️⃣ The Fed Decision It’s Not the Rates, It’s Powell
FOMC | Tomorrow
No hike. No cut.
That’s consensus.
Which means real volatility starts when Powell speaks.
Key context:
• Inflation is not convincingly slowing
• Powell has recently pushed back against political pressure
If Powell leans even slightly hawkish, markets will hear:
• “No urgency to cut”
• “No rush to ease financial conditions”
Crypto is extremely sensitive to rate-cut expectations.
A hawkish tone doesn’t mean an instant crash —
It means:
• Choppy ranges
• Fake breakouts
• Aggressive stop hunts
Classic liquidity-driven price action.
3️⃣ Mega-Cap Earnings — Tesla, Meta, Microsoft
These companies don’t just report earnings
They define equity sentiment.
• Strong results → relief rally
• Weak results → risk-off cascade
The risk here is timing:
These earnings drop the same day as the FOMC.
That’s macro + micro volatility stacked together.
If even one of these names disappoints while Powell stays firm, equities can wobble and crypto rarely ignores that signal.
4️⃣ PPI Inflation Data The Fed’s Reality Check
Thursday
PPI measures inflation at the production level, before it reaches consumers.
Why it matters:
• Hot PPI = sticky inflation
• Sticky inflation = delayed rate cuts
• Delayed rate cuts = tight liquidity
Tight liquidity is crypto’s biggest short-term enemy.
A single hot print can unwind days of bullish positioning.
5️⃣ Apple Earnings Quiet, Heavy Impact
Apple doesn’t need hype to move markets.
If Apple disappoints:
• Indexes feel it
• Funds rebalance
• Risk exposure gets reduced
Apple reports the same day as PPI, adding yet another volatility layer to an already overloaded week.
6️⃣ U.S. Government Shutdown Deadline Liquidity Risk
Friday
A government shutdown isn’t just political noise.
Shutdowns:
• Freeze parts of government spending
• Pull liquidity out of the system
• Hit speculative assets first
Last time this happened, crypto didn’t drift it sold off aggressively.
This time the backdrop is worse:
• Higher rates
• Slower growth
• Fragile risk sentiment
A shutdown here would be a real macro shock, not a footnote.
Why This 72-Hour Window Matters
Individually, these events are manageable.
Together, they force a market decision:
• Risk-on continuation
• Or risk-off defense
This doesn’t mean “everything crashes.”
It means volatility rises and weak positioning gets punished.
How Smart Traders Approach This Week
This is not the week for emotional leverage.
It’s the week for:
• Smaller position sizing
• Clear invalidation levels
• Patience over prediction
If markets hold through this window, confidence improves.
If they break, better entries come later.
Either way capital preservation comes first.
Final Thought
The next 72 hours won’t decide crypto forever.
But they will shape the next major move.
Stay flexible.
Respect liquidity.
Markets reward discipline, not excitement.
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