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Over the past 30 years, whenever major global crises erupted, investors would typically flock to U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing yields down and causing bond prices to surge. However, during the current Iran conflict, this long-standing market pattern has undergone a clear reversal.
Contrary to historical norms, investors began selling off U.S. Treasuries almost immediately after the conflict broke out, driving yields sharply higher and pushing bond prices down significantly. This indicates that global investors no longer regard U.S. Treasuries as an "absolutely safe haven asset."
Data shows that when the Iran conflict erupted on February 28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 3.97%. It quickly rose to 4.23% by March 16 (UTC+8), and climbed further to 4.44% by March 27 (UTC+8). In less than a month, yields jumped nearly 50 basis points, resulting in a significant drop in 10-year Treasury prices. With a duration of around 8.4 years, this means bond prices fell by about 4% within a month, nearly wiping out a year’s worth of interest income for investors.
This trend stands in stark contrast with previous major crises:
- In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, 10-year Treasury yields plunged from over 1.8% to below 0.6%;
- During the 2008 financial crisis, yields fell from above 4% to about 2%;
- After the 9/11 attacks, yields dropped from around 4.8% to 4.2%;
- During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, yields fell from 6.5% to about 5.7%.
In other words, Treasuries have historically played the role of a "safe haven" during every crisis, while this time their behavior has been fundamentally different.
Shifts in Supply and Demand Structure: The Core Reason Behind the Decline in U.S. Treasuries’ Appeal
Analysts believe that this abnormal trend reflects profound changes in the supply and demand structure of the U.S. Treasury market.
On the supply side, the scale of U.S. Treasuries has expanded significantly over the past decade, rising from about $14 trillion in 2015 to over $31 trillion now, nearly doubling. At the same time, as defense and security spending increases, the budget deficit is expected to widen further, implying continuous growth of government borrowing in the future.
In addition, the U.S. Social Security and Medicare Insurance systems are projected to face funding exhaustion by 2033, while a lack of political will for reform means the government may need to borrow even more to fill the gaps, further eroding the dollar’s purchasing power.
On the demand side, traditional buyers are gradually retreating. China’s holdings of Treasuries have fallen from $1.2 trillion in 2016 to about $700 billion now, and could continue declining amid geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Japan has stopped growing its Treasury holdings and is shifting toward investing in its domestic bonds.
Moreover, the long-standing "petrodollar recycling" mechanism, where oil revenues were funneled back into U.S. Treasuries, is loosening, with Middle Eastern nations channeling more funds into domestic development projects. Meanwhile, after Russia’s foreign reserves were frozen, emerging economies such as India and Brazil have also grown cautious about allocating large reserves to Treasuries.
Data shows the share of U.S. Treasuries in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from over 70% in the early 2000s to less than 57% by 2025.
Some analysts argue that the Iran conflict’s impact on oil prices has driven up inflation expectations, thereby depressing bond prices. But this explanation is not entirely convincing.
Looking back to the 1973 oil crisis, the U.S. was far more dependent on energy imports and inflation risks were even greater, yet investors still chose to buy Treasuries at the onset of the crisis, causing yields to fall in the short term, only rising in 1974.
By contrast, the U.S. is now a net energy exporter and sensitivity to oil price shocks has declined, yet Treasury yields soared rapidly at the early stages of the conflict. This shows that current market drivers are more structural than based purely on inflation concerns.
Mohamed El-Erian’s Warning: The Treasuries Market Is Brewing Greater Imbalances, the Supply-Demand Gap May Further Widen
Renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian has warned investors about the risks in the private credit market while also highlighting emerging troubles in the U.S. Treasury market.
In an interview with CNBCInterview, El-Erian shared his views on the U.S. Treasury market, specifically stressing a new and worrying issue—the supply-demand imbalance is gradually becoming more apparent.
He said, "We are already witnessing a fundamental imbalance: There is a mismatch between the issuance of Treasuries we will see in the future and the capital available in the market to buy these bonds."
El-Erian noted that this situation will add further complexity to the U.S. economy. Currently, the U.S. government is ramping up its borrowing and issuing more debt, while potential buyers may become increasingly scarce, and concerns over the U.S. debt level and budget deficit have already intensified in the market.
He went on to list some factors currently weighing on the U.S. bond market. As new issuance grows, these factors could combine to further pressure bond prices and push up yields.
First of all, the U.S. fiscal deficit remains at a high level. El-Erian stated, "Our deficit is equivalent to 6% to 7% of GDP. We also have a huge amount of refinancing to do, and corporate bond issuance is much larger than in the past."
He also mentioned recent comments by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who warned investors last Thursday to prepare for a "brutal" bond market crash and believes the government will eventually have to deal with the situation.
However, El-Erian considers Paulson’s remarks "somewhat alarmist." But he also admitted that from the demand side, as foreign buyers’ interest wanes, he too sees other emerging issues.
For example, in February this year, Chinese regulators ordered banks to reduce their holdings of U.S. debt. In El-Erian’s view, this issue now appears to be accelerating.
He said, "Buyers are getting nervous. They want the market to find solutions on its own and do not wish to have any price forced upon them. This is indeed worrying. But I think the more fundamental issue is that the market hasn’t truly realized that the imbalance already exists, and it is only going to get worse."#ranRejectsSecondRoundTalks #RheaFinanceReleasesAttackInvestigation #AltcoinRecoverySignals? #KelpDAOFacesAttack #USInitialJoblessClaimsBelowForecast

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